气象学报2025，Vol.83Issue(2)：286-303,18.DOI:10.11676/qxxb2025.20240141
基于对流尺度集合模拟的江淮暴雨预报不确定性来源分析
Understanding forecast uncertainties in convective-scale ensemble simulations of heavy rainfall cases in the Yangtze-Huai river basin
摘要
Abstract
A systematic frontal rainfall(FR)event and a localized warm-sector rainfall(WR)event during the warm season in the Yangtze-Huai river basin(YHRB)in East China are selected as research subjects.Seven convective-scale ensemble forecast experiments involving the initial conditions(ICs),lateral boundary conditions(LBCs),and model(MO)perturbations have been conducted evaluate the performance of different ensemble experiments and investigate forecast uncertainties of the FR and WR,respectively.The results indicate that combined perturbation experiments produce greater precipitation dispersion than single perturbation experiments,and the introduction of MO perturbations can effectively modify the deviation of precipitation,especially in the WR scenario.The forecast uncertainties of FR primarily stem from the synoptic low-level jet(LLJ)and the convergence of cold and warm air masses from north and south.The three-dimensional structure of the LLJ such as its intensity,location and height determines the position and strength of the FR.It is important to note that introducing MO perturbations enhances the ability of ensemble simulation to represent the uncertainty in forecasting the convergence location of cold and warm air masses.In contrast,the forecast uncertainties of WR are mainly due to boundary layer dynamics and local wind convergence near the leeward sides of mountains,and the model physics configurations are sensitive to thermal and dynamic fields of boundary layer.Appropriate MO perturbations can more effectively represent the forecast uncertainty associated with localized WR process,and thereby improve the overall performance of ensemble forecasts.关键词
锋面暴雨/暖区暴雨/对流尺度集合模拟/预报不确定性Key words
Frontal rainfall/Warm-sector rainfall/Convective-scale ensemble simulation/Forecast uncertainty分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张璐,庄潇然,闵锦忠,张振东,杨茜茜,徐渊..基于对流尺度集合模拟的江淮暴雨预报不确定性来源分析[J].气象学报,2025,83(2):286-303,18.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42105008). （42105008）
