气象学报2025，Vol.83Issue(2)：304-319,16.DOI:10.11676/qxxb2025.20240073
CMA-BJ模式对"23·7"极端强降水过程预报性能分析
Evaluating the CMA-BJ model performance in predicting the July 2023 extreme heavy rainstorm over North China
摘要
Abstract
Typhoon"Doksuri"weakened to a low-pressure system in the north,and it was blocked by a high-pressure ridge and moved slowly.From 29 July to 2 August 2023,an extremely heavy rainstorm event occurred in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and lasted for a long time.Record-breaking cumulative precipitation occurred at individual stations,causing severe flooding.Based on precipitation observations,this paper comprehensively evaluates the CMA-BJ v2.0 performance on the simulation of the precipitation event.Spatial distribution characteristics of the cumulative precipitation and precipitation period in the CMA-BJ v2.0 forecast are consistent with observations.The rainfall overall was overestimated,and the D02 forecast is closest to the observation.When the GFS(Global Foercast System)global background field is used,the rain belt moved further south,and high precipitation area appeared in central and southern Hebei province,greatly deviating from the observations.In contrast,the ECMWF-driven forecast is closer to the observation.Compared to results of the cold-start run and single-time assimilation run,wind speed in the multiple-assimilation run keeps increasing,and brings in a large amount of water vapor.As a result,the distribution of precipitation is more consistent with observations.The choice of boundary layer parameterization scheme has certain impacts on the forecast of wind field,and affects the distribution and magnitude of precipitation.The YSU(Yonsei University)scheme performs better than the ACM2(Asymmetric Convective Model)and Boulac(Bougeault-Lacarrere)schemes in the simulation of this precipitation event.关键词
极端强降水过程/CMA-BJ/大尺度背景场/同化/物理过程Key words
Extreme heavy rainstorm/CMA-BJ/Large-scale background fields/Assimilation/Physical processes分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郭淳薇,黄诚诚,徐敬,仲跻芹,赵秀娟,张亦洲,程思宇,张帅,薛一迪,李玉焕,卢冰..CMA-BJ模式对"23·7"极端强降水过程预报性能分析[J].气象学报,2025,83(2):304-319,16.基金项目
国家重点研发计划课题(2021YFC3000901)、国家自然科学基金气象联合基金(U2442204)、北京市气象局科技项目青年基金(BMBKJ202302003). （2021YFC3000901）
