气象学报2025，Vol.83Issue(2)：320-333,14.DOI:10.11676/qxxb2025.20230146
西北太平洋热带气旋生成与路径的次季节预报方法及其性能评估
Sub-seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone genesis and track over Northwest Pacific:Methods and performance evaluation
摘要
Abstract
Using tropical cyclone(TC)data of reforecast experiments by 11 dynamical models from the World Climate Research Program and World Weather Research Program sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project,this study evaluates skills of the 11 dynamical models for predicting TC genesis and track on sub-seasonal time scale over the Northwest Pacific,and compares with a statistical model that was developed by regularized logistic regression.The performances of these dynamical models on predicting TC activities at the climatic,interannual and sub-seasonal time scales are analyzed in this study.Results are as follows.(1)The performance of dynamical models on predicting climatic seasonal cycle of TC activities over the Northwest Pacific has a critical impact on sub-seasonal forecast skills.If a dynamical model can well reproduce TC activities at the climatic and interannual time scales,there is an expected skill improvement of TC genesis and track forecast on sub-seasonal time scale by improving the model ability for forecasting intra-seasonal oscillation modulation on TC activities.(2)Most of the dynamical models have a better skill for TC track prediction than that for cyclogenesis prediction at sub-seasonal time scale,implying a lower skill for TC intensity prediction in the models.The lower skill for cyclogenesis prediction hampers the improvement of TC track prediction.Improving predictions of climatic and interannual cyclogenesis could enhance tropical cyclone track forecasts by dynamic models.关键词
热带气旋/次季节预报/动力模式/逻辑回归/统计模型Key words
Tropical cyclone/Sub-seasonal forecast/Dynamical model/Logistic regression/Statistical model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
卢莹,赵海坤..西北太平洋热带气旋生成与路径的次季节预报方法及其性能评估[J].气象学报,2025,83(2):320-333,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重大项目课题(42192551)、江苏省重点研发计划项目(BE2023829)、宁波市重点研发计划项目(2023Z217). （42192551）
