生态学报2025，Vol.45Issue(7)：3047-3061,15.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202408011813
基于"潜力-连通度-韧性"的粤港澳大湾区城市群生态风险适应能力评估与提升策略
Assessment and promotion strategies of ecological risk adaptability based on"potential-connectedness-resilience"in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area urban agglomeration
摘要
Abstract
Global climate change,urban population growth,and increased activity intensity,along with the vulnerability of urban systems,have rendered the prevention and control of urban ecological risks increasingly crucial.The core of the urbanized areas response to ecological risks is to strengthen proactive adaptive management to improve risk adaptability.Existing research on adaptive theory and applications has primarily concentrated on predicting risk probabilities prior to ecological risk events,with less focus on emergency response during occurrences and post-occurrence restoration processes.It has not yet formed a systematic research system covering the whole risk response process.This study establishes a three-dimensional urban ecological risk analysis framework based on"potential-connectedness-resilience,"addressing the full spectrum of urban ecological risk response,from pre-to during-to post-risk occurrence.It assesses urban adaptability to ecological risks across multiple scales and the entire process using principal component analysis and identifies urban development stages through the adaptive cycle.The results of the study,using the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an example,show that the ecological risk adaptability of the Greater Bay Area urban agglomeration is generally at a medium level.The spatial pattern indicates a decreasing trend from the surrounding mountainous areas to the built-up areas of the center and the southeast cities.The percentage of the area with low adaptability in the central and southeastern regions of the Greater Bay Area reaches 7.70％.This affects cities in the reorganization phase of the adaptive cycle,including Macao,Foshan,Dongguan,Zhongshan,Shenzhen,and Guangzhou.These cities are exposed to stronger risks of extreme heat,inland inundation,and landscape fragmentation.It is suggested that the region can be designated as a key prevention and control area,with priority given to strengthening risk prevention and protection measures.Cities in the exploitation phase,such as Hong Kong and Zhuhai,are recommended to prioritize ecological restoration in small areas with low adaptability and to increase the allocation of land for ecological purposes.Cities in the conservation phase,including Jiangmen,Huizhou,and Zhaoqing,exhibit a high adaptability to ecological risks.It is recommended that these cities enhance their infrastructure development initiatives and increase medical resources to bolster their capacity to respond effectively to emergencies.The empirical study shows that the three-dimensional assessment framework established in this study can better reflect the impacts of ecosystem structure,function,and dynamic changes on urban ecological risks.It also provides a reference for strengthening the whole-process management of urban ecological risks.关键词
城市化区域生态风险/风险评估/适应性管理/全过程管理/粤港澳大湾区Key words
ecological risk in urbanized areas/risk assessment/adaptive management/whole process management/Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area引用本文复制引用
王欣妍,王辰星,张英男,严岩..基于"潜力-连通度-韧性"的粤港澳大湾区城市群生态风险适应能力评估与提升策略[J].生态学报,2025,45(7):3047-3061,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42101250) （42101250）
中国科学院战略先导A类专项(XDA23030101) （XDA23030101）
