生态学报2025，Vol.45Issue(7)：3169-3182,14.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202409102177
极端气候对粮食生产的影响及其作用机制
A study on the impact and mechanisms of extreme climate on grain production:the moderating and threshold effects of farmland transfer
摘要
Abstract
Food security is critically important for national stability and societal well-being.With the acceleration of climate change,extreme weather events have become more frequent and intense,exerting substantial pressure on agricultural productivity and food supply stability.Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive understanding of how extreme climate conditions affect food production and identifying effective strategies to mitigate and adapt to these impacts.Based on a robust theoretical framework,this study utilizes panel data from 296 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2020 to empirically analyze the effects of extreme climate events on food production security.Furthermore,it examines the moderating role and threshold effects of farmland transfer in mitigating these impacts,providing valuable insights into the mechanisms underlying these relationships.The key findings of the study are summarized as follows:(1)At the national level,all three major extreme climate factors—extreme high temperatures,extreme low temperatures,and extreme precipitation—have a statistically significant negative impact on food production.Extreme high temperatures and extreme low temperatures exhibit negative effects at the 1％significance level,while extreme precipitation negatively affects food production at the 5％significance level;(2)Regional disparities are evident in the impacts of extreme climate conditions on food production.The adverse effects are most pronounced in major grain-producing areas,where extreme climate factors significantly suppress agricultural productivity.In production-consumption-balanced regions,extreme high temperatures exhibit a substantial inhibitory effect on food production.Conversely,in grain-consuming regions,the impacts of extreme climate events are not statistically significant;(3)Farmland transfer serves as an important moderating mechanism in mitigating the negative effects of extreme precipitation on food production.This moderating effect is most pronounced in major grain-producing regions and production-consumption-balanced regions but remains statistically insignificant in grain-consuming regions.However,farmland transfer shows limited moderating effects on the impacts of extreme high and low temperatures,particularly in regions of critical importance to food security;(4)The relationship between extreme climate conditions and food production demonstrates a single-threshold effect.Once farmland transfer exceeds a critical threshold level of 10.8905,the negative impact of extreme climate conditions becomes statistically insignificant.In conclusion,enhancing food security in the face of extreme climate events necessitates proactive and targeted strategies.The effective implementation of the"storing grain in the land"policy is essential for improving agricultural resilience.Promoting farmland transfer to optimize cropping structures can achieve economies of scale and enhance agricultural productivity,thereby mitigating the adverse effects of extreme climate conditions and ensuring long-term food supply stability.关键词
农地流转/极端气候/粮食生产/区域差异/规模经营Key words
farmland transfer/extreme climate/grain production/regional differences/scale operation引用本文复制引用
郭珊,蒋博,吉雪强..极端气候对粮食生产的影响及其作用机制[J].生态学报,2025,45(7):3169-3182,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(72004225) （72004225）
教育部人文社科基金(24YJAZH036) （24YJAZH036）
北京市社会科学基金(23GLB029) （23GLB029）
中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目成果(19XN0002) （中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助）
