生态学报2025，Vol.45Issue(7)：3401-3420,20.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202407221722
气候变化对木姜子属五种植物分布的影响
Study on the influence of climate change on the distribution and future change of five Litsea species
摘要
Abstract
Litsea is a representative group of Lauraceae and is an important medicinal resource plant.Predicting the impacts of climate change on Litsea is helpful for which would promote the resource protection,introduction and sustainable utilization.In order to investigate the relationship between the habitats of five Litsea species and climate change,the regularization multiplier(RM)and feature combination(FC)of Maxent predictive model are optimized based on 2371 distribution records and 22 biological variables.Maxent soft was used to predict the potential geographical distribution of the five Litsea species and analysed variations in the area of suitable habitats and the movement trends of the center of distribution under current climate and 4 climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,SSP585)for three future time periods(2050s,2070s,2090s).The results showed that:(1)the prediction accuracy of the Maxent model was high,and area under the curve(AUC)of each group of the Maxent models was higher than 0.93.(2)The potential distribution of the five Litsea species was affected by different environmental factors,and precipitation of the warmest quarter had a significant effect on the distribution of five Litsea species.(3)Under the current climatic conditions,there were obvious differences in the suitability of the five Litsea species in the same region,and the area,and the total suitable area for Litsea rubescens is the largest in China.(4)In the future,the suitable habitats of the five Litsea species would expand and reduce to different degrees under different climate change scenarios,among which the total suitable habitat of Litsea cubeba and Litsea mollis would show a complete expansion trend,and the total suitable habitat of Litsea cubeba var formosana,Litsea auriculata and Litsea rubescens would show different degrees of reduction and expansion under different scenarios.(5)With the future global warming,the distribution center of five Litsea species have migrated to varying degrees,and the distribution center of Litsea rubescens and Litsea cubeba would show a trend of shifting to high-dimensional regions.Researching the ecological adaptability of five Litsea species and the prediction of their future distribution will provide a theoretical basis for formulating effective protection strategies and the introduction and cultivation.关键词
木姜子/气候变化/最大熵(MaxEnt)模型/适生区Key words
Litsea/climate change/maximum entropy model/suitable area引用本文复制引用
乔爽,汪阳东,陈益存,赵耘霄,曾为,金世茂,高暝..气候变化对木姜子属五种植物分布的影响[J].生态学报,2025,45(7):3401-3420,20.基金项目
浙江省"十四五"育种专项林木协作组课题(2021C02070-3) （2021C02070-3）
