气候变化研究进展2025，Vol.21Issue(2)：153-168,16.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.280
中国气候变化检测归因研究进展
Progress in climate change detection and attribution studies in China
摘要
Abstract
As a major frontier scientific field in climate change research,climate change detection and attribution aim to reveal the causes of climate change and quantify the impact of external forcing on climate change.These issues are not only the core of scientific research on climate change,but also the hotspot and focus of the international negotiations on climate change.China started relatively late in the field of detection and attribution,but in the past decade,with the efforts of Chinese scientists,we have achieved a number of breakthroughs in the understanding of regional climate change and the attribution of extreme events in China,and made remarkable research progress in the field of detection and attribution of climate change in China.This review shows that since the middle of the 20th century,human activities,mainly greenhouse gas emissions,are the major driver of regional warming and changes in the frequency,intensity and duration of temperature extremes in China.Human activities have a clear influence on changes in extreme precipitation,and signals of human activity can also be found in changes in some types of drought.At century scale,anthropogenic signals can be detected in the change in both mean and extreme temperatures.For major high-impact extreme events,anthropogenic forcing increases the probability of hot extreme events and decreases the probability of cold extreme events.The attribution conclusions of human influence on heavy precipitation events,drought events and complex events have low consistency,and are affected by event definition and attribution methods,etc.It is still very difficult to assess the general conclusions on the extent of human activities'influence on these events.In the future,it is necessary to strengthen the detection and attribution on changes in precipitation,drought,atmospheric circulation,compound events,etc.,to understand and improve the reliability of extreme event attribution results.关键词
人类活动/检测归因/气候变化/极端事件Key words
Human influence/Detection and attribution/Climate change/Climate extremes引用本文复制引用
孙颖,王东阡,张学斌..中国气候变化检测归因研究进展[J].气候变化研究进展,2025,21(2):153-168,16.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42025503,U2342228) （42025503,U2342228）
中国气象局重点创新团队"气候变化检测与应对"(CMA2022ZD03) （CMA2022ZD03）
