气候变化研究进展2025，Vol.21Issue(2)：169-185,17.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.205
能量收支框架下从辐射强迫-气候反馈到气候敏感度的研究进展
Advancements in the understanding of radiative forcing,climate feedback,and climate sensitivity within the energy budget framework
摘要
Abstract
From the perspective of the energy framework,related research on Earth's energy budget,effective radiative forcing,climate feedback,and climate sensitivity is systematically reviewed.Since the 1980s,Earth's energy budget has increased by 0.28-0.52 W/m2,primarily due to a sustained reduction in reflected solar radiation at the top of atmosphere.This is a crucial factor driving global warming during this period.These changes in the energy balance are closely linked to anthropogenic forcings and their effects on the climate.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)indicates that during the period of 1750-2019,the best estimate of total anthropogenic effective radiative forcing is(2.72±0.76)W/m2,which is projected to result in a global surface temperature increase of approximately 1.29(1.00-1.65)℃.Overall,climate feedback can offset the comprehensive disturbance caused by radiative forcing to the Earth system,helping to stabilize the climate state.The best estimate of net feedback provided by IPCC AR6 is-1.16(-1.81--0.51)W/(m2·℃).To project future climate change,the IPCC AR6 provides best estimates for equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response as 3.0℃ and 1.8℃,respectively,with very likely ranges of 2.0-5.0℃ and 1.2-2.4℃.Based on the forcing-feedback framework under the energy budget balance,the scientific community has clarified the impact of external forcings,such as anthropogenic and natural factors,on climate change by quantifying the Earth's energy budget and its long-term changes,and by distinguishing between radiative forcing and climate feedback.Based on the best estimates of climate feedback parameters and climate sensitivity,the magnitude of the climate response to forcing can be quantified,enabling reasonable projections of the future climate.关键词
地球能量收支/有效辐射强迫/气候反馈/气候敏感度Key words
Earth's energy budget/Effective radiative forcing/Climate feedback/Climate sensitivity引用本文复制引用
于晓超,李帅,张华,王秋艳,赵树云,王菲,柳丽婷,刘梦婷,马馨宇,杨冬冬..能量收支框架下从辐射强迫-气候反馈到气候敏感度的研究进展[J].气候变化研究进展,2025,21(2):169-185,17.基金项目
国家自然基金面上和重点基金项目(42275039,U2342224) （42275039,U2342224）
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603502,2022YFC3701202) （2017YFA0603502,2022YFC3701202）
中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金(2024KJ021) （2024KJ021）
