天然气勘探与开发2025，Vol.48Issue(2)：103-112,10.DOI:10.12055/gaskk.issn.1673-3177.2025.02.010
海上薄互层油藏反向压驱压裂施工压力预测方法
Operation pressure prediction of reverse pressure drive and fracturing for offshore thin interbedded reservoirs
摘要
Abstract
In order to address the challenges of limited drilling data,strong heterogeneity,and severe formation energy voidage in a low-permeability thin interbedded oil reservoir in the western South China Sea,and then to accurately predict the pressure during reverse pressure drive and fracturing operations in this reservoir,operation pressure prediction models were developed based on the Spearman correlation and grey relational analysis(GRA),together with linear regression and machine learning technologies.Firstly,geological reservoir and engineering parameters that significantly affect the pressure gradient of fracture extension were screened out through Spearman correlation and GRA.Secondly,based on the selected parameters,operation pressure prediction models were established by using linear regression and machine learning methods.Finally,these models were validated using the actual data from Well A1 in the reservoir.The results indicate that,(i)the methods of Spearman correlation and GRA can effectively identify key parameters affecting the pressure gradient of fracture extension;(ii)the prediction deviation rates of both linear regression and machine learning are within 10%,meeting the required engineering accuracy;(iii)when high-viscosity fracturing fluids are used,the prediction accuracy of machine learning is much superior to that of linear regression;and(iv)the predicted values of operation pressure in pressure drive and fracturing are highly consistent with the actual ones in Well A1,validating the reliability of the established models.The conclusion suggests that the operation pressure prediction method based on machine learning can provide an accurate guidance for reverse pressure drive and fracturing operations in the low-permeability thin interbedded reservoir in the western South China Sea.Additionally,it can serve as a reference for pressure prediction in similar reservoir stimulation operations.关键词
低渗透薄互层油藏/反向压驱压裂/裂缝延伸压力/灰色关联/机器学习Key words
Low-permeability thin interbedded oil reservoir/Reverse pressure drive and fracturing/Fracture extension pressure/Grey relation/Machine learning引用本文复制引用
段宝江,李建荣,王一超,蔡振华,李奇,钱继贺..海上薄互层油藏反向压驱压裂施工压力预测方法[J].天然气勘探与开发,2025,48(2):103-112,10.基金项目
中海油能源发展股份有限公司重大专项(编号:HFKJ-ZX-GJ-2023-02)、中国海洋石油集团有限公司"十四五"重大科技项目(编号:KJGG2022-0704). （编号:HFKJ-ZX-GJ-2023-02）
