气候变化研究进展2025，Vol.21Issue(2)：221-235,15.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.246
多情景下我国氢能产业中长期供需结构及碳排放模拟研究
Multi-scenario simulation study on medium-and long-term supply and demand structure and carbon emissions of China's hydrogen energy industry
摘要
Abstract
The medium-and long-term supply and demand structure of China's hydrogen energy were simulated and predicted under different scenarios.Firstly,a baseline,positive,and enhanced scenarios were set up,and Low Emission Analysis Platform(LEAP)model was constructed to predict the medium-and long-term demand for hydrogen in transportation,industry,and construction terminal sectors under multiple scenarios.Secondly,the levelized cost of hydrogen(LCOH)for 8 types of hydrogen production methods that account for carbon emissions was calculated,and future cost trends were predicted based on cost learning curves.Lastly,a hydrogen supply structure optimization model was constructed with the objective of minimizing hydrogen production costs,and the proportion of various hydrogen production methods from 2025 to 2060 was derived,simulating the evolution of carbon emissions.In terms of consumption structure,the industrial sector dominates hydrogen consumption,accounting for 65％in the positive scenario in 2060,and transportation is an important point of growth for hydrogen consumption.In terms of supply structure,fossil energy-based hydrogen production will still be the main source in the short term,with CCS technology playing a significant transitional role,and a hydrogen supply structure dominated by green hydrogen will gradually form in the long term,with renewable energy-based hydrogen production expected to reach 75％by 2060.In terms of carbon emissions,thanks to the clean transformation of the hydrogen production industry structure,carbon emissions will decrease from 618 Mt in 2023 to 103 Mt in 2060,with more significant carbon emission reductions at key points in 2030 and 2060 compared to other times.Based on the above research results,policy suggestions are put forward to promote the high-quality development of China's hydrogen energy industry.关键词
氢能/需求预测/供给优化/经济性/情景设置Key words
Hydrogen energy/Demand forecasting/Supply optimization/Economy/Scenario settings引用本文复制引用
许传博,王乐凯,史超凡,秦光宇,刘建国,刘琦,刘畅..多情景下我国氢能产业中长期供需结构及碳排放模拟研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2025,21(2):221-235,15.基金项目
中国氢能联盟2022政研项目(CHA2022RP001) （CHA2022RP001）
国家自然科学基金项目"面向新型能源体系的氢储能资源协同优化配置及激励机制研究"(72303063) （72303063）
国家自然科学基金重点项目"电-碳-氢融合的综合能源系统长周期平衡机理与规划方法"(U23B20124) （U23B20124）
