人民黄河2025，Vol.47Issue(5)：66-71,133,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.05.011
农业经济增长与用水量脱钩效应及驱动因素研究
Research on the Decoupling Between Agricultural Water Use and Economic Growth and Its Driving Factors in Henan Province
摘要
Abstract
In order to explore the decoupling effect of agricultural economic growth and agricultural water use in Henan Province and the spa-tial-temporal variation of water use driving factors,the sample data from 2016 to 2023 were selected for analysis by using Tapio decoupling model and LMDI model.The results show that a)the decoupling state of agricultural economic growth and agricultural water use in Henan Province has evolved from weak decoupling during"the13th Five-Year Plan"period(2016-2020)to strong decoupling in the mid-term of"the 14th Five-Year Plan"period(2021-2023),with hydrological conditions having a certain influence to the transformation and stability of the decoupling state.b)There are significant differences and dynamic changes in the decoupling states of agricultural economic growth and agricultural water use among different prefecture-level cities.Xuchang has maintained a strong decoupling state throughout the period,while Xinxiang,Nanyang,Shangqiu and Sanmenxia have improved their decoupling states.In contrast,Kaifeng,Luoyang and other 12 prefecture-level cities have shown a trend of deteriorating decoupling states,among them,the six prefecture-level cities of Kaifeng,Luoyang,Pingding-shan,Hebi,Xinyang and Jiyuan stand out particularly.c)In terms of the driving factors of agricultural water use changes,technological pro-gress has always been the dominant factor in reducing agricultural water use in Henan Province,while the growth of economic benefits is the key factor in increasing agricultural water use.d)Different prefecture-level cities have different dominant factors driving changes in agricul-tural water use.Technological progress is the dominant factor for water-saving in Jiaozuo,Xuchang and other 9 cities,and the rebound of wa-ter use for water diversion in Jiyuan.The increase in economic benefits is the dominant factor for water use increase in Luohe,Nanyang and other 4 cities,and the expansion of irrigation area is the dominant factor for water use increase in Luoyang,Pingdingshan and other 4 cities.Based on the research results,suggestions are put forward to continuously strengthen agricultural water management in Henan Province and formulate differentiated water management policies for different prefecture-level cities according to their decoupling states and dominant fac-tors.关键词
农业用水量/Tapio脱钩模型/LMDI模型/驱动因素/河南省Key words
agricultural water use/Tapio decoupling model/LMDI model/driving factor/Henan Province分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
潘国强,许丹丹,张玉顺..农业经济增长与用水量脱钩效应及驱动因素研究[J].人民黄河,2025,47(5):66-71,133,7.基金项目
河南省级基本科研业务费项目([2024]31号) （[2024]31号）
