人民黄河2025，Vol.47Issue(5)：80-86,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.05.013
基于DPSIR动态框架的郑州市供水系统韧性评价
Resilience Evaluation and Prediction of Water Supply System in Zhengzhou Based on DPSIR Dynamic Framework
摘要
Abstract
In order to evaluate and enhance the resilience of urban water supply systems in response to climate change and rapid urbaniza-tion,this paper built a resilience evaluation index system for urban water supply systems based on the DPSIR(Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response)dynamic framework.The dynamic TOPSIS-Entropy method and Geographical detector were used to assess and analyze the influencing factors of the resilience of Zhengzhou water supply system.The results show that the average resilience of the water supply system in Zhengzhou City from 2011 to 2022 generally shows an increasing trend.It is at a moderate resilience level from 2011 to 2014,at a relative-ly high resilience level from 2015 to 2020,drops to a moderate resilience level in 2021,and returns to a relatively high resilience level in 2022.The results of the single-factor detection indicate that the leakage water volume is the dominant factor affecting the resilience of the wa-ter supply system.The interaction detection results of the dual-factor show higher explanatory power and factor coverage than those of the sin-gle-factor detection,and are mainly nonlinear enhancement and two-factor enhancement,indicating that the influence of multiple factor inter-actions on the resilience of the water supply system should be considered.It is suggested that while urban construction is being carried out,the coordinated development of ecology,society and economy should be promoted to reduce population pressure,ecological pressure and re-sources pressure,maintain the stability and continuity of the operation status of the water supply system,reduce the impact of human activi-ties and emergencies on the water supply system,increase the capacity of backup water sources,reduce water leakage and loss,strengthen the construction of infrastructure such as water supply pipelines,effectively enhance the comprehensive service capacity of water supply and strengthen the effectiveness of response measures.关键词
城市供水系统/韧性评价/DPSIR/动态TOPSIS-熵权法/地理探测器/郑州市Key words
urban water supply system/resilience evaluation/DPSIR/dynamic TOPSIS-entropy weight method/geographic detector/Zhengzhou City分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王延荣,陈慧哲..基于DPSIR动态框架的郑州市供水系统韧性评价[J].人民黄河,2025,47(5):80-86,7.基金项目
河南省科技厅软科学项目(242400411060) （242400411060）
