人民黄河2025，Vol.47Issue(5)：87-92,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.05.014
新疆南疆水资源承载力评价预测及时空关联格局研究
Evaluation and Prediction of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Southern Xinjiang and a Study on the Pattern of Spatial-Temporal Correlation
摘要
Abstract
In order to explore the spatial-temporal correlation pattern and the trend of water resources carrying capacity in the five prefectures of southern Xinjiang,a comprehensive evaluation system of water resources carrying capacity was built,and the entropy-TOPSIS method and Hoit-Winter model were used to evaluate and predict the water resources status of five prefectures in southern Xinjiang.GIS software was used to describe the correlation characteristics of regional water resources carrying capacity.The results show that a)the water resources in south-ern Xinjiang are in a state of scarcity and reasonable marginal carrying capacity,and the water resources carrying capacity of Bazhou changes the most,followed by Kashgar,and Kezhou is the most stable.b)The carrying capacity of water resources in Kashgar has increased rapidly,and it is expected to reach the level of abundance in the future,while there is little change in other regions.c)From 2015 to 2026,the water resources carrying capacity of southern Xinjiang shows a certain degree of spatial dispersion,and the water resources carrying capacity of Ak-su region is often dispersed with high and low values,and the water resources carrying capacity in Hotan area is always scattered with low to high values,and it is very likely that there will be low-high value dispersion in Kezhou in the future,while the water resources carrying ca-pacity of Bazhou and Kashgar shows a random distribution(not directly related to other regions).The economic development of southern Xin-jiang should be based on the optimization of industrial structure,the improvement of water resources utilization efficiency and the transforma-tion of ecological value,so as to create a characteristic economic development model that saves water and protects the environment and acts according to the amount of water.关键词
水资源承载力/熵权-TOPSIS法/Hoit-Winter模型/南疆Key words
water resources carrying capacity/entropy weight-TOPSIS method/Hoit-Winter model/southern Xinjiang分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
胡宝华,刘凯鑫,晁伟鹏,杨兵红,邓财源..新疆南疆水资源承载力评价预测及时空关联格局研究[J].人民黄河,2025,47(5):87-92,6.基金项目
兵团创新研究团队项目(TDZKCX202313) （TDZKCX202313）
兵团维稳戍边智库项目(22BTZK08) （22BTZK08）
