武警医学2025，Vol.36Issue(4)：301-305,309,6.
肛周脓肿手术预后不良的危险因素分析
Analysis of risk factors for poor prognosis after perianal abscess surgery
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the influencing factors for poor prognosis in patients after perianal abscess surgery,and con-struct a quantitative risk evaluation model.Methods A total of 145 patients with perianal abscess who underwent surgical treatment in the 960th Hospital of PLA Joint Logistics Support Force from July 2022 to March 2024 were retrospectively selected and followed up for 6 months.The patients were divided into a good prognosis group(n=93)and a poor prognosis group(n=52).The clinical data of the two groups were compared,and the influencing factors for poor prognosis in patients after perianal abscess surgery was screened using multiple logistic regression analysis.Based on the results of multiple regression analysis,a Nomogram evaluation model was constructed using R software and rms package.Bootstrap method was used for internal validation,and calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves were drawn to evaluate the predictive efficiency of the model.Results Multivariate Logistic analysis showed that body mass index(BMI)≥28 kg/m2,diabetes,deep abscess,horseshoe abscess and simple incision and drainage sur-gery were risk factors for the poor prognosis(P<0.05).Based on the results of multifactor analysis,a Nomogram evaluation model was constructed to evaluate the risk of poor prognosis in patients with perianal abscess surgery.After verification,its internal consistency index(C-index)was 0.884(95%CI:0.836～0.931),the calibration curve showed that calibration curve had good consistency with the ideal curve,and the ROC curve showed that the sensitivity,specificity and area under the curve of the model for predicting poor prognosis were 88.46%,89.25%and 0.905(95%CI:0.851～0.959)respectively.Conclusions BMI≥28 kg/m2,diabetes,deep abscess,horseshoe abscess,and simple incision and drainage are all risk factors for poor prognosis in patients with perianal ab-scess,and the quantitative risk Nomogram evaluation model based on this analysis can effectively guide the early screening of high-risk patients with poor prognosis and timely formulate corresponding intervention strategies to improve prognosis.关键词
肛周脓肿/预后/影响因素/诺莫图Key words
perianal abscess/prognosis/influencing factors/Nomogram分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
徐玉超,孙英刚,谭京忠,张亚利,米文宁..肛周脓肿手术预后不良的危险因素分析[J].武警医学,2025,36(4):301-305,309,6.基金项目
山东省医药卫生科技项目(编号202404011225) （编号202404011225）
