中国舰船研究2025，Vol.20Issue(2)：196-202,7.DOI:10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03589
随机海浪下船舶横摇运动响应极值预报研究
Extreme value prediction of the roll motion under random seas
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]In this work,two stability failure models,i.e.,the dead ship condition and paramet-ric roll are selected in order to study and evaluate ship stability as well as safety at seas.[Methods]Specific-ally,roll motion equations are established for the dead ship condition and the parametric roll condition,respectively.Subsequently,these equations are coupled with the linear filter,and the roll responses time histories under time random seas are obtained by solving the coupled equations using the Runge Kutta method.The stochastic process X(t)is defined as the absolute value of the roll response,and the average conditional exceedance rate(ACER)method is employed to predict the extreme value distribution of X(t).[Results]The results show that the ACER method can provide effective predictions of the extreme value distributions for the roll response under the dead ship condition and the parametric roll condition.The exceedance probabil-ity for the stochastic process X(t)at the critical level(e.g.the flooding angle),can be applied as an effective in-dex to evaluate ship capsizing at seas.[Conclusion]Extreme value prediction of the roll motion by applica-tion of the ACER method could be an important reference to evaluate ship stability at seas.关键词
横摇运动/平均条件超越率法/船舶倾覆/稳性Key words
roll motion/average conditional exceedance rate(ACER)method/ship capsizing/stability分类
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朱杰,刘在良,林艳,柴威..随机海浪下船舶横摇运动响应极值预报研究[J].中国舰船研究,2025,20(2):196-202,7.基金项目
舟山市科技计划项目(2022C31042) （2022C31042）
浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LTGG23E090003) （LTGG23E090003）
