中国地质灾害与防治学报2025，Vol.36Issue(2)：13-27,15.DOI:10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202501002
气候变化背景下降雨滑坡风险评估研究进展
Research progress on rainfall-triggered landslide risk assessment under the context of climate change
摘要
Abstract
With the intensification of global climate change,extreme rainfall events have become increasingly frequent,leading to recurrent rainfall-triggered landslides and causing significant casualties and economic losses.With the context of climate change,this study systematically reviews the research progress on advancements in probabilistic risk assessment of rainfall-triggered landslides,focusing on three key aspects:(1)slope reliability assessment under rainfall conditions considering climate change;(2)vulnerability assessment of slopes considering the uncertainty of rainfall patterns;and(3)rainfall-induced landslide hazard assessment based on machine learning methods.On this basis,this study further analyzes the multidimensional challenges faced by rainfall-triggered landslide risk assessment under climate change,including uncertainties associated with climate change,the lack of high spatio-temporal resolution geological and meteorological data,and the adaptability of models across different regions.Finally,from the perspectives of detailed geological surveys,multi-factor disaster gestation mechanisms,this study looks towards future research directions for enhancing resilience in rainfall-induced landslide disaster prevention,from landslide mechanisms under multiple factors,to resilience-based risk assessment.This study aims to provide theoretical support and methodological references for the disaster prevention and mitigation work of rainfall-triggered landslides,promoting the scientific,systematic,and refined development of landslide risk management.关键词
降雨型滑坡/风险评估/不确定性/气候变化/韧性防灾Key words
rainfall-induced landslide/risk assessment/uncertainty/climate change/disaster resilience分类
地质学引用本文复制引用
黄雨,何正迎..气候变化背景下降雨滑坡风险评估研究进展[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2025,36(2):13-27,15.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3012600) （2024YFC3012600）
