中国地质灾害与防治学报2025，Vol.36Issue(2)：72-77,6.DOI:10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202412028
极端降雨诱发浅层滑坡的重现期计算方法
Calculation of the return period for shallow landslides triggered by extreme rainfall
摘要
Abstract
To quantitatively assess the dynamic risk of rainfall-induced shallow landslides over extended periods and provide references for geological disaster risk prevention and mitigation in southeast China,this study proposes a method for calculating the return period of shallow landslides considering rainfall uncertainty.The specific calculation framework includes:(1)Constructing the joint distribution of extreme rainfall intensity-duration(I-D)based on the Copula function;(2)Determining the I-D threshold for landslides based on geological conditions and hydrological factors;(3)Using the Monte Carlo method to simulate the probability that the joint I-D distribution of extreme rainfall events exceeds the I-D threshold,representing the probability of slope failure,and further calculating the landslide return period.The feasibility of this method was validated at a potential landslide site in Majian Town,Zhejiang Province.The predicted return period for the landslide is 17 years.It is recommended that relevant preventive and mitigation measures be implemented to reduce potential disaster losses.关键词
滑坡重现期/极端降雨/Copula函数/I-D阈值/蒙特卡罗法Key words
return period of landslide/extreme rainfall/Copula function/I-D threshold/Monte Carlo Method分类
地质学引用本文复制引用
谭畅,周文超,邓子昊,吕庆,于洋,安妮..极端降雨诱发浅层滑坡的重现期计算方法[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2025,36(2):72-77,6.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3012601) （2024YFC3012601）
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42277132) （42277132）
浙江省重点研发计划项目(2021C03159) （2021C03159）
