中国普通外科杂志2025，Vol.34Issue(3)：462-474,13.DOI:10.7659/j.issn.1005-6947.240597
基于GBD数据库的胰腺癌疾病负担横断面分析及前瞻性预测
Cross-sectional analysis and prospective prediction of pancreatic cancer disease burden based on the GBD database
摘要
Abstract
Background and Aims:Pancreatic cancer is a highly aggressive malignancy that imposes a significant disease burden both in China and globally.It not only substantially increases healthcare expenditures but also profoundly influences health policy decisions.This study aims to systematically assess the disease burden of pancreatic cancer in China and worldwide over the past 30 years and to analyze future trends using a prospective predictive model,providing a scientific basis for the development of effective prevention and control strategies. Methods:Data on incidence,prevalence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)of pancreatic cancer,stratified by sex and standardized for age,were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)database for the period 1990-2021.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was used to predict the disease burden trends of pancreatic cancer for the next 15 years. Results:The results showed that from 1990 to 2021,the incidence,prevalence,mortality,and DALY rates of pancreatic cancer exhibited an increasing trend in both China and worldwide.Males had significantly higher incidence and mortality rates than females,with a faster growth rate.The highest incidence and mortality rates were observed in economically developed regions such as North America and Europe,while lower rates were noted in less developed regions such as Africa and South Asia.However,with economic development and lifestyle changes,the pancreatic cancer burden in these low-incidence regions is also gradually increasing.Over time,the growth rate of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in China has surpassed the global average,and with an aging population,the disease burden is expected to rise further in the future. Conclusion:There are significant variations in the pancreatic cancer burden across genders and regions.Strengthening health education and early screening for high-risk populations,optimizing personalized treatment strategies,and increasing investment in basic research on pancreatic cancer are essential to mitigating the growing disease burden.This study provides crucial scientific evidence for the formulation of pancreatic cancer prevention and control strategies,contributing to improved patient outcomes and reduced socioeconomic burden.关键词
胰腺肿瘤/患病代价/全球疾病负担/社会人口学指数Key words
Pancreatic Neoplasms/Cost of Illness/Global Burden of Disease/Sociodemographic Index分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
殷雨来,张晓宇..基于GBD数据库的胰腺癌疾病负担横断面分析及前瞻性预测[J].中国普通外科杂志,2025,34(3):462-474,13.基金项目
河北省医学科学研究基金资助项目(20220400). （20220400）
