中西医结合护理（中英文）2025，Vol.11Issue(2)：157-160,4.DOI:10.11997/nitcwm.202502040
连续性肾脏替代治疗非计划性下机的影响因素研究及预测模型构建
Study on the influencing factors of unplanned interruption in continuous renal replacement therapy and construction of a prediction model
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the influencing factors of unplanned interruption during continuous renal replacement therapy(CRRT)and to construct a predictive model.Methods The subjects of this study were 532 patients who received CRRT at Rudong People's Hospital.The enrollment period was from March 2022 to March 2023.A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of these patients,and the data of planned weaning and unplanned interruption were compared.Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the relevant risk factors for unplanned interruption.A prediction model of unplanned interruption was constructed using the software R and the efficacy of the model was verified.Results Of the 532 CRRT patients,45 patients experienced unplanned interruption,with an incidence rate of 8.46％.Univariate analysis showed that age,blood flow velocity,use of blood products,prothrombin time(PT),mechanical ventilation,and activated partial thromboplastin time(APTT)were all associated with unplanned interruption(P<0.05).Multivariate analysis showed that age≥60 years,use of blood products,PT<13 s,mechanical ventilation,APTT<37 s,and blood flow velocity≥200 mL/min were all influencing factors of unplanned interruption of CRRT(P<0.05).The risk of unplanned interruption of CRRT was calculated as Logit(P)=8.631-2.341×blood flow velocity+1.256×age+1.775×use of blood products+1.682×mechanical ventilation+1.951×PT+2.084×APTT.With a cut-off value of-287.281,the area under the curve of the model is 0.852,and the sensitivity and specificity are 0.826 and 0.914,respectively,indicating favourable predictive performance.Conclusion The risk of unplanned interruption in patients undergoing CRRT is relatively high,and influencing factors include age,use of blood products,mechanical ventilation,and blood flow velocity.A predictive model based on the risk and protective factors can provide a reliable reference for risk assessment of unplanned interruption.关键词
连续性肾脏替代治疗/非计划性下机/影响因素/预测模型Key words
continuous renal replacement therapy/unplanned interruption/influencing factor/prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
蒋丽丽,於环环,陶镜羽,曹培培,张姝,叶雪华..连续性肾脏替代治疗非计划性下机的影响因素研究及预测模型构建[J].中西医结合护理（中英文）,2025,11(2):157-160,4.基金项目
南通市基础科学研究和社会民生科技计划项目(JCZ2022001) （JCZ2022001）
