资源开发与市场2025，Vol.41Issue(4)：512-520,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-8141.2025.04.004
上海市减污降碳协同效应分析与预测
Analysis and forecast of the synergy effect of pollution reduction and carbon mitigation in Shanghai
摘要
Abstract
Shanghai,as a mega city,has reached a critical stage in its efforts to reduce pollution and lower carbon emissions.There-fore,it is necessary to deeply explore the collaborative situation of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Shanghai and make scien-tific and reasonable predictions for the future.Based on policy documents,the pollution reduction and carbon reduction work in Shanghai is divided into three stages.This paper constructed the synergistic effect coefficient model and coupling coordination degree model to an-alyze the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Shanghai from 2006 to 2021.And this paper used the STIR-PAT model to predict the carbon emissions and atmospheric pollutant emissions from 2022 to 2030.The findings indicated that:①From 2006 to 2021,the overall synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon mitigation in Shanghai was yielded an average per-formance,with a significant number of years exhibiting negative synergistic effect coefficients.However,the overall trend indicated a move towards increased synergy.② The coupled coordination degree exhibited significant fluctuations,but the overall trend was moving from imbalance towards coordinated development.③ The forecast results showed that carbon emissions would peak at 157.54 million tons in 2026,and the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon mitigation were expected to remain at a relatively stable but low level during the forecast period.Therefore,the government needs to actively promote investment and development in the tertiary sector in Shanghai and formulate more effective policies and measures to achieve synergistic improvements in pollution reduction and carbon miti-gation,as well as to meet the goals of peaking carbon emissions.关键词
减污降碳/协同效应/耦合协调度/STIRPAT模型/偏最小二乘法Key words
pollution reduction and carbon reduction/synergistic effect/coupling coordination degree/STIRPAT model/partial least squares method分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
鲍彦荣,何建佳,何胜学,李军祥..上海市减污降碳协同效应分析与预测[J].资源开发与市场,2025,41(4):512-520,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(编号:71871144) （编号:71871144）
上海市哲学社会科学规划一般项目(编号:2023BGL009). （编号:2023BGL009）
