安全、健康和环境2025，Vol.25Issue(4)：33-40,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7932.2025.04.005
海上采油平台结构失稳倒塌可能性评估方法研究
Study on Evaluation Method of Structural Instability and Collapse of Offshore Oil Production Platforms
摘要
Abstract
Structural instability and collapse of offshore oil production platforms can lead to catastrophic consequences.The evaluation of the possibility of structural instability and collapse of offshore platforms mainly relies on specialized numerical simulation software,which takes a long time and is difficult for enterprises to master.A method for evaluating the possibility of structural instability collapse of offshore oil production plat-forms based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was constructed,which included 5 secondary indexes such as compliance of design conditions,assessment of life extension,upper load,structural integrity and extreme envi-ronmental resistance,and 11 tertiary indexes such as water depth change and fixed load.The complex mathe-matical calculation can be simplified into a assigning model.This method enabled enterprises to calculate the failure probability of platform instability collapse and determine the failure probability of platform instability col-lapse in a short period of time through the analysis and evaluation of existing data and the weight analysis of dif-ferent influencing factors.The evaluation method had been applied and verified on an offshore oil production platform in the Bohai Sea,and the results showed that the evaluation results were basically consistent with the fi-nite element modeling evaluation method required by AQ 2078-2020"Safety Assessment Rules for the Main Structure of Aging Offshore Stationary Production Facilities".This evaluation method can provide a preliminary method for enterprises to carry out risk-based fine finite element modeling evaluation.关键词
海上采油平台/平台结构/失稳倒塌/层次分析法/失效可能性指数/失效概率Key words
offshore production platforms/platform structure/instability and collapse/analytic hierarchy process/failure probability index/failure probability分类
石油、天然气工程引用本文复制引用
姜晓..海上采油平台结构失稳倒塌可能性评估方法研究[J].安全、健康和环境,2025,25(4):33-40,8.基金项目
中国石化科技部项目(P23120),复杂海况下浅海采油平台失稳风险评估及预警技术. （P23120）
