电力需求侧管理2025，Vol.27Issue(3)：71-76,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2025.03.011
计及碳交易主从博弈的区域电动汽车保有量推演
Estimation of regional electric vehicle ownership considering master-slave game of carbon trading
摘要
Abstract
In order to further promote the development of electric vehicles,a method for estimating the ownership of electric vehicles is pro-posed considering the master-slave game of carbon trading among the government,suppliers,and consumers.Firstly,based on the interests of the three parties,a master-slave game model led by the government is established.Secondly,considering the innovation,imitation effect,and price factors of the population,the Bass model is improved to predict the regional electric vehicle ownership.Furthermore,the utility functions of the three parties in the game are optimized as the objective function,in order to obtain the basic data under the Nash equilibri-um solution for the parameters of the Bass model.And then,establishes a regional electric vehicle ownership prediction method is estab-lished by alternating between ownership prediction and vehicle market game simulation.Finally,with actual vehicle data from Shanghai,the impact of introducing carbon trading into the vehicle market on the number of electric vehicles is analyzed in the coming years.Through scenario comparison,the feasibility and economy of the proposed method are verified.关键词
电动汽车/碳交易/博弈论/保有量推演/Bass模型Key words
electric vehicles/carbon trading/game theory/ownership estimation/Bass model分类
动力与电气工程引用本文复制引用
王嘉诚,刘晓峰,梅文卿,孙海翔,季振亚,刘国宝..计及碳交易主从博弈的区域电动汽车保有量推演[J].电力需求侧管理,2025,27(3):71-76,6.基金项目
江苏省高等学校基础科学(自然科学)研究面上项目(23KJB470020) （自然科学）
