干旱区地理2025，Vol.48Issue(5)：812-824,13.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.407
不同气候情景下环县柠条锦鸡儿分布及土壤碳储量特征
Characteristics of Caragana korshinskii distribution and soil carbon storage in Huan County under different climate scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Global climate change and land use alterations significantly affect ecosystem carbon storage.Afforesta-tion enhances carbon sequestration and reduces emissions,thereby improving ecological health.Caragana kor-shinskii,a widely planted shrub species in northwest China,has important implications for determining afforesta-tion areas and assessing carbon sequestration potential by predicting its suitable habitat.Using 104 distribution points of C.korshinskii and environmental factors from Huan County,Qingyang City,Gansu Province of China,this study employed the optimized MaxEnt model to predict its potential distribution for the current(2000s)and future periods(2030s,2050s,2070s).The study also analyzed the major environmental factors affecting its distri-bution,identified priority and stable afforestation areas using land use data,and estimated future soil carbon stor-age for C.korshinskii in Huan County.The results indicated the following:(1)The major environmental factors influencing the distribution of C.korshinskii include the mean monthly radiation during the growing season,the coefficient of seasonal variation in temperature,elevation,the mean temperature of the warmest quarter,and iso-thermality.(2)At present,the potential suitable areas for C.korshinskii are primarily distributed in the western and northern regions of Huan County,covering approximately 16.59%of the county's total area.(3)Under fu-ture climate scenarios,the potential suitable areas for C.korshinskii are expected to expand,with greater growth under the low-emission scenario(SSP126)compared to the high-emission scenario(SSP585).(4)The stable ar-eas of potential distribution for C.korshinskii remain relatively stable,forming continuous and concentrated patches.The expansion areas extend from the west and north toward the center,whereas the lost areas are frag-mented and scattered,with a back-and-forth contracting and expanding trend in the distribution pattern of the in-creased areas and the lost areas.(5)Under the medium-emission scenario(SSP370),soil carbon storage of C.kor-shinskii is expected to increase rapidly,reaching 1.017×106 t by the 2070s,representing a 2.1-fold increase.How-ever,the rate of increase is slower than that under the low-emission scenario(SSP126)and the high-emission sce-nario(SSP585).关键词
气候情景/最大熵模型/潜在适生区/土壤碳储量/柠条锦鸡儿Key words
climate scenarios/MaxEnt model/potential suitable areas/soil carbon storage/Caragana korshinskii引用本文复制引用
吴双梅,周冬梅,马静,朱小燕,张军,江晶,DONG Qinghan..不同气候情景下环县柠条锦鸡儿分布及土壤碳储量特征[J].干旱区地理,2025,48(5):812-824,13.基金项目
甘肃省重点研发计划项目(23YFNA0036) （23YFNA0036）
甘肃省自然科学基金项目(21JR7RA811,24JRRA774) （21JR7RA811,24JRRA774）
甘肃省林业和草原科技创新计划项目(LCKJCX202205) （LCKJCX202205）
甘肃省教育厅产业支撑计划项目(2023CYZC-45)资助 （2023CYZC-45）
