干旱区地理2025，Vol.48Issue(5)：879-892,14.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.329
甘肃省农业碳排放时空分异特征及影响因素
Spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province
摘要
Abstract
Identifying the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions is essential for reducing uncertainty in carbon emission reduction target accounting and implementing accurate policies to achieve those targets.Based on agricultural carbon emission estimates in Gansu Province,China,from 2014 to 2022,this study employed the Moran's I index to analyze the spatiotemporal differentiation characteris-tics of carbon emissions.The dynamic evolution trends were analyzed using the kernel density estimation meth-od,and a geographically weighted regression model was constructed to identify the factors influencing agricultur-al carbon emissions.The results showed the following.(1)From 2014 to 2022,the agricultural carbon emissions in Gansu Province tended to decline.However,emissions from animal husbandry,identified as the primary source,exhibited an upward trend.The order of carbon emissions by region from highest to lowest was as fol-lows:Hexi oasis agricultural area>Longdong-Longzhong Loess Plateau dry farming area>alpine pastoral area>Longnan Mountain rain-fed agricultural area.(2)The spatial agglomeration of total agricultural carbon emissions was weak and concentrated within the Hexi Oasis agricultural area.Notably,Jiuquan City and Zhangye City ex-hibited high-low agglomeration,while Jinchang City exhibited low-high agglomeration.Other regions exhibited no significant agglomeration patterns.(3)The carbon emission intensity across all four agricultural regions de-clined over the study period,and regional differences in the emission intensity gradually narrowed.(4)Per capita gross agricultural product,agricultural industrial structure,and total population demonstrated a significant role in reducing agricultural carbon emission.The disposable income of rural residents,amount of agricultural fertilizer used,and total power of agricultural machinery caused an increase in the carbon emissions.Finally,it was recom-mended to improve livestock and poultry varieties,implement moderate-scale breeding practices,and ensure ac-curate operation and management across the entire industrial chain to increase emission reduction efforts in ani-mal husbandry.Furthermore,minimizing the use of agricultural materials such as fertilizers and plastic films,along with promoting the application of green technologies,is essential to achieving agricultural carbon reduction goals.关键词
农业碳排放/农业碳排放系数/核密度估计/地理加权回归/甘肃省Key words
agricultural carbon emission/agricultural carbon emission coefficient/kernel density estimation/geographical weighted regression/Gansu Province引用本文复制引用
马海清,陈强强..甘肃省农业碳排放时空分异特征及影响因素[J].干旱区地理,2025,48(5):879-892,14.基金项目
甘肃省人文社科项目(22ZZ81) （22ZZ81）
甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目(2022QN017) （2022QN017）
甘肃农业大学青年导师基金项目(GAU-QDFC-2022-20)资助 （GAU-QDFC-2022-20）
