化工学报2025，Vol.76Issue(4)：1885-1897,13.DOI:10.11949/0438-1157.20241044
基于热响应机理的罐区池火灾动态多米诺效应评估方法
Dynamic domino effect assessment method based on thermal response mechanism of pool fire in tank farm
摘要
Abstract
In chemical parks with many hazardous chemicals and complex process units,once a fire or explosion accident occurs,it is easy to affect the neighboring units,thus triggering the domino effect and causing more serious consequences.To explore the dynamic evolution of the fire domino effect and the synergistic effect on the domino accident escalation,a quantitative assessment of the domino effect is conducted.Based on the thermal response mechanism of the storage tank and considering the dual effects of material failure due to thermal radiation and the increase in internal pressure,a transient response model of time to failure and escalation probability of the tank is developed by integrating factors such as temporal-spatial evolution and synergistic effects of multiple fires.A certain tank area was simulated as the research object,the initial accident was set,and the domino effect in the scene was dynamically modeled and analyzed.The results show that the synergistic effect between multiple fires will increase the rate of temperature rise of the storage tanks and significantly reduce the failure time of the tanks,which will accelerate the upgrading of the domino effect.The dynamic domino effect model established in the research can predict the failure time and the probability of the storage tanks,and then determine the upgrading path of the domino effect,and at the same time,analyze the targeted chain-breaking strategy to block the propagation of the accident according to the results,so as to provide a theoretical basis for the allocation of safety protection and the formulation of emergency measures in the chemical park.关键词
罐区/多米诺效应/瞬态响应/动态建模/断链策略/安全Key words
tank farm/domino effect/transient response/dynamic modeling/chain-breaking strategy/safety分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
张新梅,张傲,邱德华,刘晓爽,陈晨..基于热响应机理的罐区池火灾动态多米诺效应评估方法[J].化工学报,2025,76(4):1885-1897,13.基金项目
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2023MG041) （ZR2023MG041）
