国际神经病学神经外科学杂志2025，Vol.52Issue(2)：52-56,5.DOI:10.16636/j.cnki.jinn.1673-2642.2025.02.008
急性脑梗死患者颈动脉易损斑块的危险因素分析及预测模型构建
Risk factor analysis and prediction model construction for vulnerable carotid plaques in patients with acute cerebral infarction
摘要
Abstract
Objective To investigate risk factors for vulnerable carotid plaques in patients with acute cerebral infarction,and to build a risk prediction model based on them.Methods A total of 259 patients with acute cerebral infarction who had carotid artery plaques detected by color Doppler flow imaging at The First People's Hospital of Changde City from January to October 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.They were divided into two groups based on whether their plaques were vulnerable:125 cases in the vulnerable plaque group and 134 cases in the non-vulnerable plaque group.The clinical data of the two groups were collected.The baseline data of patients with vulnerable and non-vulnerable plaques were compared using univariable analyses.Risk factors associated with vulnerable carotid plaques were identified through a multivariable logistic regression analysis to develop a risk prediction model for the formation of vulnerable carotid plaques in acute cerebral infarction.Results The univariable analyses revealed that compared with the non-vulnerable plaque group,the vulnerable plaque group showed significantly higher proportions of males,urban residents,and smokers and significantly higher levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C),homocysteine(Hcy),uric acid,and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein(hs-CRP)(all P<0.05).The multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that sex(odds ratio[OR]=4.510,P<0.001),LDL-C(OR=2.944,P<0.001),Hcy(OR=1.607,P<0.001),and hs-CRP(OR=1.142,P=0.004)were risk factors for the presence of vulnerable plaques.The risk prediction model developed based on the identified risk factors demonstrated robust predictive capacity,with the area under the curve being 0.883.Conclusions Sex,LDL-C,Hcy,and hs-CRP are risk factors for the formation of vulnerable carotid plaques in patients with acute cerebral infarction.The predictive model incorporating these four factors can be used to assess the risk of developing vulnerable carotid plaques in patients with acute cerebral infarction.关键词
急性脑梗死/颈动脉/易损斑块/危险因素/风险预测模型Key words
acute cerebral infarction/carotid artery/vulnerable plaque/risk factor/risk prediction model分类
临床医学引用本文复制引用
钟真真,张小波,熊颖珠,李飞扬,王蕾..急性脑梗死患者颈动脉易损斑块的危险因素分析及预测模型构建[J].国际神经病学神经外科学杂志,2025,52(2):52-56,5.基金项目
湖南省卫生健康委科研计划项目(D202303079265) （D202303079265）
常德市技术创新引导项目(2023YD22) （2023YD22）
常德市技术创新引导项目(2023YD26). （2023YD26）
