海洋渔业2025，Vol.47Issue(2)：141-152,12.
渔获量与自然死亡系数不确定性对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估的影响
Influence of catch and natural mortality uncertainty on Thunnus albacares stock assessment in the Indian Ocean
摘要
Abstract
Thunnus albacares holds significant importance in tuna fisheries in the Indian Ocean,and effective conservation and management is essential for maintaining the balance of marine ecosystems and promoting sustainable utilization.This study conducted a stock assessment of Thunnus albacares in the Indian Ocean based on annual catch,standardized CPUE(catch per unit effort),catch at age,natural mortality,maturity and stock-recruitment relationships,utilizing the age-structured assessment program(ASAP).The primary focus was on investigating the influence of natural mortality and catch data uncertainty on the stock assessment of the species.To estimate the natural mortality(M)of Thunnus albacares in the Indian Ocean,two models were applied,and both models were based on the maximum observed age(Amax)∶M=4.899A max-0916and M=5.4/Amax.The maximum observed ages selected for calculation included the global maximum observed age for Thunnus albacares(18.0 years)and the maximum observed age in the Indian Ocean(9.7 years).To explore the impact of statistical bias on stock assessment results,this paper assumed adjustments for catch reporting bias at three levels(10％,15％,20％).Additionally,given CV on the catch was the main influencing factor for catch observation error,a sensitivity analysis on catch observation error was conducted by assuming CV values of 0.10,0.15,and 0.20.The results indicated that changes in natural mortality significantly impacted the stock assessment outcomes of Thunnus albacares in the Indian Ocean,with variations in natural mortality due to the maximum observed age being particularly pronounced.When the maximum observed age amounted to 10.9 years,the assessment suggested a relatively optimistic stock status for the species.However,if age reached 18.0 years,the assessment presented a more pessimistic stock status.Concerning catch data observation error(CV),the study revealed that increasing CV diminished the estimated maximum sustainable yield(MSY),thereby affecting stock assessment results.In terms of catch data reporting bias,the research suggested that increasing reporting bias did not significantly influence fishing mortality but did have a notable impact on reference points such as spawning stock biomass(SSB),the maximum sustainable yield(FMSY),and initial spawning biomass.In this study,the stock assessment results for the species were not optimistic(F2020＞FMSY,SSB2020＜SSBMSY),indicating a likelihood of overfishing and overfished status.In the context of the species stock assessment,it is crucial to emphasize the impact of catch data and natural mortality uncertainties on assessment outcomes.The results can help identify the balance between harvesting and reproduction,facilitating the sustainable utilization of Thunnus albacares.关键词
自然死亡系数/渔获量/不确定性/年龄结构评估模型/资源评估/黄鳍金枪鱼Key words
natural mortality/catch/uncertainty/age-structured assessment program/stock assessment/Thunnus albacares分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张绍炜,戴小杰..渔获量与自然死亡系数不确定性对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估的影响[J].海洋渔业,2025,47(2):141-152,12.基金项目
农业农村部远洋渔业管理技术支撑项目(21-0056) （21-0056）
