华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.46Issue(2)：32-39,8.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2025020
黄河上游典型水源涵养流域径流演变及归因解析研究
Runoff Evolution and Attribution Quantification for a Typical Water Conservation Catchment in the Upper Yellow River Basin
摘要
Abstract
The Yellow River Basin is shortage in water resources.The hydrological regime in the water conservation areas of the Yellow River Basin has been highly influenced by environment change.It is of significance to quantify attribution of runoff change for water conservation and ecological protection.Taking the Datong River in the upper Yellow River Basin as a case,this study investigated characteristics of runoff evolution during 1961-2020,and quantified impact of climate change and hu-man activities on runoff change by using VIC model.The results showed that:① The measured annual runoff at Xiangtang station showed a significant decreasing trend from 1961 to 2020,with an abrupt change occurring in 1990.② The recorded annual runoff in 1991-2020 decreased by 12%relative to baseline of 1961-1990,among which,runoff decreased by 27.7 mm in the period from April to October and increased by 4.4 mm in other months;③ The VIC model performs well in monthly natural discharge simulation for the baseline period of 1961-1990 with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.74 and relative error of 0.46%;④ During the period of 1991-2020,climate change increased runoff by 21.8 mm,while hu-man activities decreased runoff by 45.0 mm.Construction and operation of water conservancy projects in the Datong River is the dominated reason of runoff reduction at the Xiangtang hydrometric station.关键词
气候变化/人类活动/大通河流域/径流量/VIC模型/归因识别Key words
climate change impacts/human activities/Datong River basin/runoff/VIC model/attribution analysis on runoff change分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
王国庆,郑雨凝,刘希胜,孙高霞,李晨希,刘翠善..黄河上游典型水源涵养流域径流演变及归因解析研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,46(2):32-39,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U2243228,52121006). （U2243228,52121006）
