华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.46Issue(2)：56-63,8.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2025023
考虑复杂下垫面的台风风场模型及其在巨灾风险管理中的应用
Wind Field Model for Typhoon Considering Complex Underlying Surface and Its Application in Catastrophe Risk Management
摘要
Abstract
Typhoon catastrophe models play a crucial role in typhoon catastrophe risk management,with typhoon wind field models constituting their core component.This study developed a typhoon wind field model applicable to complex underlying surface conditions by integrating the Georgiou typhoon wind field model with the latest research findings on the radius of maxi-mum wind speed in the Northwest Pacific and Holland parameter B.The model was validated using measured wind speed data from selected meteorological stations and typhoon intensity data derived from the best-track dataset,in conjunction with the basic wind pressure distribution specified in current structural load codes for China′s coastal regions and key cities.Results demonstrate that the model exhibits stability and reliability.Furthermore,the typhoon wind field data generated by this model enables quantitative assessment of loss probability for disaster-bearing entities across different regions,thereby facilitating the determination of region-specific insurance premium rates.Finally,the model was applied to typhoon catastrophe risk manage-ment practice,with Guangdong Province serving as a case study for regional insurance rate determination.The derived rates align with actual conditions,confirming the model′s potential to provide technical support for catastrophe risk management,insurance,and reinsurance operations.关键词
台风巨灾/风险管理/台风风场模型/复杂下垫面/费率区划Key words
typhoon catastrophe/risk management/typhoon wind field model/complex underlying surface/rate zoning分类
海洋学引用本文复制引用
熊政辉,宫婷,方平治..考虑复杂下垫面的台风风场模型及其在巨灾风险管理中的应用[J].华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,46(2):56-63,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U2142206). （U2142206）
