华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.46Issue(2)：74-83,10.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2025025
基于SSPs情景的滦河流域水源涵养量研究
Water Conservation in the Luanhe River Basin under SSPs Scenarios
摘要
Abstract
The Luanhe River Basin serves as a critical water conservation zone for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,making it essential to assess its hydrological resilience under climate change.This study quantifies water conservation dynamics across three SSP scenarios using an integrated modeling framework.Population and GDP projections from CMIP6 were incorporated into a coupled System Dynamics(SD)-FLUS model to predict 2030 land use patterns,which were then utilized in a calibrated SWAT model to simulate spatial-temporal variations in water conservation.Key findings include:① Temporally,water con-servation exhibited a U-shaped trend(decline followed by recovery)during 2000-2030,with the lowest value in 2020(9.72 billion m3)and the highest under SSP3 in 2030(11.24 billion m3).② Spatially,southeastern sub-basins showed higher conservation capacity than northwestern areas due to precipitation gradients.③ Multi-variate analysis revealed strong positive correlation with precipitation and negative correlation with evapotranspiration.④ The main water conservation of the basin comes from grassland,forest land and cultivated land.关键词
水源涵养/土地利用预测/SWAT模型/滦河流域Key words
water conservation/land use prediction/SWAT model/Luanhe River Basin分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
门宝辉,李国娇,刘灿均..基于SSPs情景的滦河流域水源涵养量研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,46(2):74-83,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401406) （2016YFC0401406）
全球环境基金(GEF)水资源与水环境综合管理主流化项目(1-2,2-6). （GEF）
