华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）Issue(3)：38-52,15.DOI:10.13300/j.cnki.hnwkxb.2025.03.004
气候变化下的中国粮食全要素生产率再测度
Remeasuring China's Total Factor Productivity of Grain Under Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
Measuring the changes in grain production efficiency and total factor productivity(TFP),and revealing the sources of TFP growth in China's grain sector,are of great significance for promoting sustainable grain production and ensuring food security.Based on provincial-level panel data of the grain industry,this article incorporates climate factors as exogenous uncontrollable input factors into the grain TFP measurement system.Using a specialized measurement(MS)model,the growth of grain TFP is measured and decomposed into technological progress,input change,climate change,and effi-ciency change,thereby providing a detailed analysis of China's grain TFP growth and its composition over the past 25 years.The results show that China's grain TFP has increased by 93.52%over 25 years,mainly driven by frontier technological progress and factor input effects.Changes in technological effi-ciency have slowed grain TFP growth,while climate change has had a significant negative effect on grain TFP growth.Moreover,the level of grain production efficiency in China is not high and shows a declining trend in general,but regional disparities in grain production efficiency among provinces are gradually nar-rowing.Additionally,the impact of climate change on grain TFP growth is mixed but predominantly ad-verse.Except for the northeast region,all other six regions experienced negative effects of climate change on grain TFP growth.Climate change plays a significant role in the distributional changes of grain TFP growth,with varying effects across different regions and crops.关键词
粮食全要素生产率/粮食安全/气候变化/MS模型Key words
grain total factor productivity/food security/climate change/MS model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
尹朝静,杨坤,孔锋..气候变化下的中国粮食全要素生产率再测度[J].华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）,2025,(3):38-52,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"气候变化对我国农业生产的经济影响评估:基于全要素生产率视角"(71903162) （71903162）
重庆市社会科学规划项目"数字技术赋能农业生态效率提升的机制与路径研究"(2024NDYB047) （2024NDYB047）
西南大学研究阐释党的二十大精神专项项目"环境政策工具对农业绿色转型的影响机制与政策优化研究"(SWU2209081). （SWU2209081）
