华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）Issue(3)：53-66,14.DOI:10.13300/j.cnki.hnwkxb.2025.03.005
"促进"或"抑制":农地经营规模扩大如何影响作物种植净碳汇效应
"Promote"or"Inhibit":How Does the Expansion Farmland Operation Scale Affect the Net Carbon Sequestration Effect in Crop Production
摘要
Abstract
China's crop production sector holds significant potential for emission reduction and car-bon sequestration,playing a crucial role in achieving the"Dual Carbon"goals.Based on county-level data across China,this study employs a fixed effects model to analyze the impact of FOS on intensity of carbon emission,carbon sequestration,and net carbon sequestration in crop production.A simultaneous equations model is further applied to examine influencing pathways through multidimensional factors,in-cluding input intensity,cropping structure,and crop yield.The results are as follows:1)As FOS ex-pands,the net carbon sequestration intensity of crop production follows a"U-shaped"curve,with the turning point occurring when per capita farm operation scale reaches 2.25 hectares.Specifically,carbon emission intensity exhibits an"inverted U-shaped"trend,while carbon sequestration intensity shows a"U-shaped"pattern,with the latter dominating the net carbon sequestration dynamics.2)The"inverted U-shaped"trajectory of carbon emission intensity is primarily driven by fertilizer input intensity,which similarly follows an"inverted U-shaped"response to FOS expansion.3)The transition in cropping structure from"non-grain-oriented"to"grain-oriented"practices,induced by FOS expansion,is the key factor behind the"U-shaped"trend in carbon sequestration intensity.Given that the carbon sequestration effect of crop production far outweighs its emission effect,this structural shift also becomes the decisive factor for the"U-shaped"net carbon sequestration intensity.Therefore,accelerating the transition to large-scale agricultural operations is essential for long-term low-carbon development in crop production.However,during the initial stages of this transition,targeted policy interventions are necessary to miti-gate potential adverse impacts on emission reduction and carbon sequestration.关键词
农地经营规模/作物种植/碳排放/碳汇/净碳汇Key words
farmland operation scale/crop production/carbon emissions/carbon sequestration/net carbon sequestration分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李亚玲,陈同勤,易福金.."促进"或"抑制":农地经营规模扩大如何影响作物种植净碳汇效应[J].华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）,2025,(3):53-66,14.基金项目
"十四五"国家重点研发计划子课题"增值肥料社会价值链、经济价值链研究"(2023YFD170020X-04) （2023YFD170020X-04）
国家自然科学基金-盖茨基金国际合作重点项目"农业综合天气指数保险研究和实施"(72261147758) （72261147758）
安徽省高等学校科学研究项目(人文社会科学)"数字技能驱动我国农户健康膳食转型的效应识别和动力机制研究"(2024AH052424). （人文社会科学）
