扬州大学学报（农业与生命科学版）2025，Vol.46Issue(2)：38-47,76,11.DOI:10.16872/j.cnki.1671-4652.2025.02.006
添加胆汁酸作为风险因素用于新型结直肠癌预测模型的开发
Developing of a novel predictive model for colorectal cancer by adding bile acids as risk factors
摘要
Abstract
To explore the risk factors for colorectal cancer and to develop a predictive model for colorectal cancer by combining serum levels of various bile acids.A prospective study was conducted on patients who visited the Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery at the Affiliated Jiangdu People's Hospital of Yangzhou University between 2020 and 2024.Rele-vant medical records and laboratory test results,including serum bile acid subtypes measured by liquid chromatography,were collected.Patients with colorectal cancer were compared with control patients to analyze the differences in variables.All patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets in a 7∶3 ratio.Using univariate and multivariate lo-gistic regression analysis,a predictive model was gradually constructed in the training set,and nomograms,ROC curves,calibration curves,and DCA curves were plotted.The validation set was then used to verify the model.Results showed that:A total of 421 patients were included(217 in the colorectal cancer group;204 in the control group).Analysis of dif-ferential variables revealed that increased age,male gender,history of diabetes,irregular colonoscopy,family history of colorectal cancer,history of Helicobacter pylori infection,high BMI,low ALB,high GCA,high GCDCA,high TCDCA,and high TBA were more common in the colorectal cancer group.Through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis,age,family history of colorectal cancer,history of diabetes,colonoscopy frequency,history of Helicobacter py-lori infection,BMI,ALB,and GCA were identified as independent risk factors for colorectal cancer(P＜0.05).The ROC curves of the training and validation sets showed AUC values of 0.79 and 0.75,respectively.The calibration curves demonstrated good agreement,and the DC A curves indicated that the predictive model had good clinical net benefit.Mul-tiple factors contributed to the development of colorectal cancer.This study,by incorporating serum bile acid subtypes,constructed a model with good predictive value.关键词
结直肠癌/预测模型/胆汁酸/风险因素Key words
colorectal cancer/predictive model/bile acids/risk factors分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
黄永,宋航宇,陈奕名,丁毅,石立新,杨炎,韦伟..添加胆汁酸作为风险因素用于新型结直肠癌预测模型的开发[J].扬州大学学报（农业与生命科学版）,2025,46(2):38-47,76,11.基金项目
扬州市社会发展项目(YZ2022089、YZ2023094) （YZ2022089、YZ2023094）
扬州市卫生健康委员会医学重点科研项目(2023-1-04) （2023-1-04）
