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基于变量联合分布的沿江城市雨洪遭遇概率分析

任杰 凌金平 徐毅 程晓东 万思成

江苏水利Issue(5):16-20,5.
江苏水利Issue(5):16-20,5.

基于变量联合分布的沿江城市雨洪遭遇概率分析

Probability analysis of rainfall and flood encounters in cities along the river based on joint distribution of variable

任杰 1凌金平 2徐毅 1程晓东 1万思成1

作者信息

  • 1. 江苏省水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210017
  • 2. 镇江市长江河道管理处,江苏 镇江 212008
  • 折叠

摘要

Abstract

With the rapid advancement of urbanization,the problem of urban waterlogging has become increasingly prominent.In addition to being related to the precipitation within the urban area,urban waterlogging is also associated with the urban external drainage capacity,which in turn is closely related to the water level of the external drainage river channels.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the risk of rainstorm and high water level in external rivers.Taking Nanjing City as an example,the marginal distributions and joint distributions of the annual maximum daily precipitation and the maximum high tide level in a sliding 1-day period at Nanjing Station from 1951 to 2022 were respectively fitted,and the single risks and co-occurrence risks were analyzed.

关键词

暴雨/联合分布/风险分析/雨洪遭遇/概率分析

Key words

rainstorm/joint distribution/risk analysis/rainfall and flood encounter/probabitity analysis

分类

环境科学

引用本文复制引用

任杰,凌金平,徐毅,程晓东,万思成..基于变量联合分布的沿江城市雨洪遭遇概率分析[J].江苏水利,2025,(5):16-20,5.

基金项目

江苏省水利科技项目(2022015,2022008),江苏省水利科学研究院自主科研经费专项资金项目(2023Z040) (2022015,2022008)

江苏水利

1007-7839

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