海洋预报2025，Vol.42Issue(2)：39-45,7.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2025.02.005
中国近海2023年灾害性海浪分析及2024年预测
Disastrous wave of China seas in 2023 and prediction for 2024
摘要
Abstract
China's offshore areas experienced several hazardous wave events with significant wave heights(Hs)larger than 4 meters in 2023,resulting in varying degrees of damage.In this study,the forecasts of hazardous wave events for 2023 are verified against the observations.Besides,using statistical data of hazardous wave events from 1979 to 2022,and the prediction data for the subtropical high and tropical cyclones in 2024,a prediction of hazardous wave events for 2024 are made based on linear regression and similar year analysis.The results show that,there will be 33～37 hazardous wave events in China's offshore areas in 2024,which is more than that in 2023 but slightly less than the climatic average.Among these hazardous wave events,11～13 events will be caused by typhoons affecting the East China Sea,Taiwan Strait,and South China Sea.22～24 events will be caused by cold air and cyclones,which is close to the climatic average.关键词
海浪灾害/灾害性海浪/海浪灾情/检验/海浪预测Key words
marine disaster/disastrous wave/wave disaster/assessment/wave prediction分类
海洋学引用本文复制引用
吕睿,徐瑞,王娟娟,侯放,李本霞,孟凡昌,朱亚波,魏世哲,蒋学站..中国近海2023年灾害性海浪分析及2024年预测[J].海洋预报,2025,42(2):39-45,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3107803) （2023YFC3107803）
中国华能集团有限公司科技项目(HNKJ22-H132). （HNKJ22-H132）
