煤矿安全2025，Vol.56Issue(5)：181-191,11.DOI:10.13347/j.cnki.mkaq.20240900
基于多变量统计分析的矿井涌水定量判识研究
Research on quantitative identification of mine water inflow based on multivariate statistical analysis
摘要
Abstract
Identifying the sources of mine water gushing is fundamental for preventing water hazards in coal mining areas,enhan-cing the economic efficiency and effectiveness of prevention measures.Taking a mining area in the southern margin of Ordos Basin as the research area,11 mine water samples were collected before and after the mine water gushing events.Hydrogeological compre-hensive analysis was employed to preliminarily identify the water sources,and a mathematical model was developed using ground-water chemical compositions.The sources of water gushing were quantitatively analyzed using statistical methods such as cluster analysis,factor analysis,multiple regression analysis,and canonical correlation analysis,the analysis results are mutually verified with the actual exploration results.The main sources of water gushing in the study area include Zhiluo Formation water,Luohe Formation water,and Quaternary water.Among these,Luohe Formation water and Quaternary water were primarily recharged by surface water,which infiltrated the mine through fractures.Cluster analysis showed that the first inrush water sample was grouped with Zhiluo Formation water,Quaternary water,and surface water,while goaf water formed a separate cluster.The chemical com-positions of the second and third gushing water samples were similar to those of goaf water,the mass concentration of sulfate ions(SO42-)and magnesium ions(Mg2+)is higher.Factor analysis revealed that Zhiluo Formation water and goaf water contributed signi-ficantly to the water gushing,with contribution rates of 0.989 and 0.988,respectively.Multiple regression analysis indicated that sur-face water and Quaternary water had the most significant impacts on water gushing.Canonical correlation analysis further confirmed the strong relationship between gushing water samples and surface water or Quaternary water with regression coefficients of 2.764 and-3.169,respectively.The main sources of water gushing in the study area were identified as surface water,Quaternary water,and Zhiluo Formation water,with the findings highly consistent with actual exploration results.Therefore,integrating multivariate statistical analysis techniques can achieve quantitative identification of water gushing sources.关键词
鄂尔多斯盆地/水源识别/煤矿水害/水文地质综合分析/矿井涌水/矿井突水Key words
Ordos Basin/water source identification/water damage of coal mine/hydro-geological comprehensive analysis/mine water gushing/mine water inrush分类
矿业与冶金引用本文复制引用
王怀,王心义,孟红伟,习通,刘朋,王子涵..基于多变量统计分析的矿井涌水定量判识研究[J].煤矿安全,2025,56(5):181-191,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41972254) （41972254）
河南省创新型科技人才队伍建设工程基金资助项目(CXTD2016053) （CXTD2016053）
河南省重点研发专项资助项目(251111322300) （251111322300）
