水利水电技术（中英文）2025，Vol.56Issue(4)：12-24,13.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.04.002
基于耦合机理模型与数据模型的城市管网运行风险预测
Operational risk prediction of urban pipe network based on coupling mechanism model and data model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The frequent occurrence of global extreme climate events and the rapid pace of urbanization have resulted in increasingly severe urban waterlogging issues,leading to a significant rise in drainage pressure within urban pipe networks.It is of utmost importance to promptly assess the operational status of these pipe networks.[Methods]The flood process analysis mechanism model of the Wenchong drainage system in Huangpu District,Guangzhou,was established based on the SWMM model to determine the hydraulic capacity of pipeline sections under different rainfall scenarios.Subsequently,a data model incorporating both single-well and multi-well computing models was developed to predict the hydraulic capacity of urban pipe sections,with careful selection of the most suitable data model.Finally,an evaluation of operational risk for the urban pipe network was conducted using an improved analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive risk index method.[Results]The results show that:(1)The decision tree model based on the multi-well calculation mode has the highest accuracy,with an RMSE of 0.077 and a MAE of 0.030,and the single-well calculation time is 600,000 times faster than the SWMM model.(2)In the area where sensitive points are concentrated,social factors exert the most significant influence on the operational risk of the pipe network,with a weightage of 0.72.In contrast,in the area where sensitive points are not concentrated,economic factors play a dominant role in determining the operational risk of the pipe network,carrying a weightage of 0.68.[Conclusion]The decision tree model based on the multi-well calculation mode can meet the precision and timeliness requirements for urban flood emergency response.The risk of pipe network operation varies across different areas of the city,necessitating the proposal of improvement measures tailored to local conditions.关键词
机理模型/数据模型/耦合/管网运行风险/管段充满度/气候变化/城市内涝/降雨Key words
mechanism model/data model/coupling/network running risk/pipe filling/climate change/urban waterlogging/rainfall分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
龙岩,曲佳,左向阳,李韫昱,刘子维,陆寅飞..基于耦合机理模型与数据模型的城市管网运行风险预测[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2025,56(4):12-24,13.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3006503) （2023YFC3006503）
河北省自然科学基金资助(E2024402142) （E2024402142）
