海洋气象学报2025，Vol.45Issue(2)：1-13,13.DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.hyqxxb.20241220001
龙卷监测预报预警技术进展
Advances in monitoring,forecasting and early warning technology of tornado
摘要
Abstract
Severe convective weather forecasting is one of the challenging tasks in forecasting operations,with the monitoring,forecasting and early warning of tornado being particularly difficult within this field.This paper briefly summarizes the history of tornado monitoring and forecasting operations in the United States,Europe and China,focusing on the advances in the monitoring,short-range and short-term forecasting and early warning technology of mesocyclone tornadoes.Tornadoes are of a small spatiotemporal scale,and short-range and short-term forecasting can only predict their favorable environmental conditions and mesoscale formation mechanisms,respectively.The significant tornado parameter(STP)and the maximum updraft helicity(UH)are the effective physical variables for short-range and short-term forecasting of tornadoes,respectively.The monitoring of mesocyclone tornadoes relies on the tornadic vortex signatures and polarimetric observations from dual-polarization Doppler weather radar,which can monitor the formation and dissipation of tornadoes.It is still difficult to directly identify the tornadoes produced by quasi-linear convective systems,but the relationship between mesovortices and tornadoes in such storms is relatively close,and technical methods have been developed to use vertical wind shear and radar dual-polarization characteristics to identify the development of mesovortices in such storms.The ability to identify and forecast tornadoes using physical laws,random forests,or deep learning methods has significantly improved,while there are still significant shortcomings in the monitoring,forecasting and early warning capabilities of tornadoes.In future,we need to improve monitoring and identification capabilities with more observing or detecting methods,deepen understanding of mechanisms,develop ultra-high resolution numerical weather prediction models and artificial intelligence methods to enhance forecasting and early warning capabilities.It is even more crucial to fully leverage the subjective initiative and pivotal role of forecasters.关键词
龙卷/中气旋/环境条件/监测/预报预警/雷达/高分辨率数值预报/机器学习Key words
tornado/mesocyclone/environmental condition/monitoring/forecasting and early warning/radar/high-resolution numerical weather prediction/machine learning分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
郑永光,杨波,周康辉,蓝渝,盛杰,曹艳察,田付友,周晓敏..龙卷监测预报预警技术进展[J].海洋气象学报,2025,45(2):1-13,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U2342204) （U2342204）
中国气象局强对流天气重点创新团队项目(CMA2022ZD07) （CMA2022ZD07）
