水利水电技术（中英文）2025，Vol.56Issue(4)：52-69,18.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.04.005
基于创新趋势分析方法的珠江流域降水径流变化趋势研究
Research on the variation trends of precipitation and runoff in the Pearl River Basin based on innovative trend analysis method
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Precipitation and runoff are the key elements of the hydrological cycle.Studying the trend variations of precipitation and runoff,especially further exploring changes in their relationship,is of great significance for understanding climate change,water resources management,and ecological protection.[Methods]Based on a long series of precipitation and runoff data from 1956 to 2019,the innovative trend analysis method was used to analyze the variation trends of precipitation,runoff,and runoff coefficient at different spatiotemporal scales in the Pearl River Basin.[Results]The result showed that:(1)the overall annual precipitation in the Pearl River Basin showed a downward trend,with changes in low-value categories declining by more than 5％,indicating an increased likelihood of drought in the Pearl River Basin,and the change trend of annual runoff was consistent with that of precipitation.Across different sub-basins,the West River and East River showed significant downward trends,while the North River showed an upward trend.(2)From a seasonal perspective,spring and autumn precipitation in the Pearl River Basin showed a significant downward trend,while summer and winter precipitation showed an upward trend.The spring high precipitation values and all types of autumn precipitation showed a downward trend of more than 5％,and the summer high precipitation values and winter low-to-median precipitation showed an upward trend of more than 5％.The variation trends of annual runoff in spring,autumn,and winter were consistent with precipitation,but were opposite in summer.(3)The runoff coefficient showed a significant downward trend,especially in high values.Preliminary analysis suggested that the decrease in runoff coefficient was related to the increase of evapotranspiration,changes in vegetation coverage,and the regulation and storage of water engineering.(4)The consistency rate between the innovative trend analysis method and the traditional Mann-Kendall method was 70％for trend type and 22％for significance.[Conclusion]Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of precipitation,runoff,and runoff coefficient in the Pearl River Basin:From a temporal perspective,the annual precipitation and runoff in the Pearl River Basin show an overall declining trend,with a significant decrease in the runoff coefficient.From a spatial perspective,the precipitation and runoff in the West River and East River exhibit a noticeable downward trend,while the North River shows an upward trend.The innovative trend analysis method,compared to the Mann-Kendall method,demonstrates significant differences in trend significance testing.关键词
创新趋势分析/气候变化/降水径流/径流系数/时空变化特征/珠江流域Key words
innovative trend analysis/climate change/precipitation and runoff/runoff coefficient/spatiotemporal variation characteristics/Pearl River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王霞雨,贾文豪,王森,冯仲恺,秦友伟,张康,刘夏,李家誉..基于创新趋势分析方法的珠江流域降水径流变化趋势研究[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2025,56(4):52-69,18.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001000) （2021YFC3001000）
国家自然科学基金项目(52379009) （52379009）
水灾害防御全国重点实验室自主研究项目(5240152E2) （5240152E2）
广东省水利科技创新项目(2023-01) （2023-01）
水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022005) （SKS-2022005）
