天然气工业2025，Vol.45Issue(4)：109-120,12.DOI:10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2025.04.009
基于序贯高斯—协克里金法的孔隙压力钻前预测
Pre-drilling pore pressure prediction based on sequential gaussian co-kriging method
摘要
Abstract
Accurate prediction of pore pressure is of great significance to safe drilling.However,existing pre-drilling formation pore pressure prediction methods have large errors,and cannot effectively guide the drilling engineering design and operations,resulting in accidents frequently such as circulation loss and overflow.In order to realize accurate pre-drilling prediction of formation pore pressure,this paper establishes a new model for single-well pore pressure prediction by using the interval transit time data after porosity correction.Then,combined with 3D geological structures in the work area,a three-dimensional pore pressure prediction model based on the sequential gaussian co-kriging method is developed.In addition,a three-dimensional data volume of pore pressure is constructed to realize pre-drilling prediction of pore pressure.The following results are obtained.First,the model utilizes two reservoir physical parameters that vary with depth,namely interval transit time and reservoir porosity,making the pore pressure calculation process more accordant with the actual formation structures.Compared with the scenario without considering the influence of porosity,the average absolute error of the modified model is reduced from 12.92%to 3.52%.Second,the sequential gaussian co-kriging interpolation algorithm takes into account the randomness of fracture and fault region and the continuity of non-fracture and fault region at the same time.The pre-drilling pore pressure prediction based on the three-dimensional data volume of pore pressure is in line with the actual drilling data with an error between±10%.Third,the three-dimensional pore pressure data volume established for the upper key clastic rock sections in the Penglai gas province can provide effective analysis on the complex working conditions of single well and realize pre-drilling prediction of pore pressure and risk.In conclusion,this method can realize the accurate pre-drilling prediction of pore pressure with 3D visual calculation results,which provides basis for casing program design and drilling fluid density design,as well as theoretical and technical support for the safe,economic and efficient exploration and development of oil and gas resources.关键词
三维孔隙压力/压力展布/钻前预测/序贯高斯-协克里金法/地质建模/碎屑岩Key words
Three-dimensional pore pressure/Pressure distribution/Pre-drilling prediction/Sequential gaussian co-kriging method/Geological modeling/Clastic rock分类
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汤明,郭欣钰,何世明,邹露,张光福,孔令豪,邓祥华..基于序贯高斯—协克里金法的孔隙压力钻前预测[J].天然气工业,2025,45(4):109-120,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"深层页岩气水平井钻井井筒温度场调控研究"(编号:52374012)、国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目"基于水化进程的泥岩地层井壁坍塌机理研究"(编号:51904260). （编号:52374012）
