沙漠与绿洲气象2025，Vol.19Issue(2)：64-72,9.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2310.10001
集合空间检验技术在东北夏季强降水预报中的应用
Application of Ensemble Spatial Verification Technique in Forecasting Heavy Precipitation in Northeast China during Summer
摘要
Abstract
The summer heavy precipitation in Northeast China is characterized by its localized nature,short duration,and high intensity.Such extreme weather events have always been a challenge for numerical forecasting.The traditional precipitation skill scores are often ineffective for verifying heavy precipitation processes in Northeast China due to the"double penalty"effect caused by minor spatial and temporal discrepancies.The ensemble precipitation spatial verification technique can effectively improve the validity of precipitation assessment.In this paper,the heavy precipitation events in Northeast China during the summer of 2018 were categorized into westward trough,shear line,and low vortex types,with typical precipitation cases selected for each weather process.A comparative analysis involving process analysis,ensemble equitable threat score(EETS),and the developed ensemble precipitation spatial verification method was conducted.The results indicate that EETS have certain evaluative capabilities when the precipitation area is extensive and the intensity is high.However,when heavy precipitation is scattered and point rainfall dominates,the inherent evaluation disadvantages become evident.Specifically,it becomes challenging to achieve a perfect match between forecasts and observations in point-to-point verification,leading to significant reliability and discernibility issues in the evaluation conclusions due to the serious"double penalty"problem.However,the ensemble precipitation spatial verification method can effectively compensate for these shortcomings,significantly enhancing the discernibility of the assessment.关键词
东北夏季强降水/集合预报/常规技巧评分/EETS/EFSSKey words
summer heavy rainfall in Northeastern China/ensemble forecasts/traditional skill score/EETS/EFSS分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
李子良,赵山山,任景倩,钱亦婷..集合空间检验技术在东北夏季强降水预报中的应用[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2025,19(2):64-72,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41905091) （41905091）
国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0604500) （2017YFA0604500）
公益性行业(气象)科研专项课题(GYHY201506002) （气象）
