沙漠与绿洲气象2025，Vol.19Issue(2)：100-107,8.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2301.12003
基于偏回归分析的雷电监测预警模型研究及应用——以镇海为例
Research and Application of Lightning Monitoring and Early Warning Model Based on Partial Regression Analysis:Taking Zhenhai as an Example
摘要
Abstract
This study constructs and localizes a lightning monitoring and early warning model based on multi-source data fusion,utilizing 2019-2021 FY-4A LMI China regional detection data,the atmospheric electric field observation network and the ground-based lightning positioning system data.The model significantly enhances the accuracy of lightning monitoring and early warning during convective weather events.A partial regression model was proposed,which adjusted the common linear impact of predictors on the dependent variable,considering the contribution of each predictor coefficient to other predictors.The significance of predictor impacts before and after adjustment was verified through an example.Using the Stepwise method,predictors were selected,and a lightning early warning and prediction equation was established based on the model.Through fitting analysis,it was found that when the atmospheric electric field intensity change amplitude reaches 0.89 kV·m-1,accompanied by the first zero crossing polarity reversal in the monitoring curve,cloud-to-ground lightning is expected to occur within 14.771 km of the measurement station after 24.39 minutes.The equation passed the significance level test at F(α=0.1).The localized fitting test showed that the effective rate of early warning detection(POD)was 83.51%,the false alarm rate(FAR)was 5.32%,and the critical success index(CSI)was 79.77%,indicating a significant improvement over traditional threshold method forecasting.关键词
偏回归分析/雷电监测/预警/方程/应用Key words
partial regression analysis/lightning monitoring/early warning/equation/application分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘威,何彩芬,徐璐,许可,庞乐,欧阳霖..基于偏回归分析的雷电监测预警模型研究及应用——以镇海为例[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2025,19(2):100-107,8.基金项目
宁波市镇海区公益类科技计划项目(镇科[2021]15号) （镇科[2021]15号）
