水资源与水工程学报2025，Vol.36Issue(2)：9-18,10.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.02.02
保定市湿地退化空间分布特征及预测分析
Spatial distribution characteristics and prediction of wetland degradation in Baoding City
摘要
Abstract
Groundwater overexploitation in North China Plain have intensified wetland degradation.To i-dentify the degradation situation in Baoding City,we analyzed the distribution and changes of wetlands u-sing GIS technology based on the land use data of 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020.Additionally,a Markov model was constructed by Python to simulate the wetland evolution in the study area in 2025,un-der the scenarios of natural evolution,intensified groundwater overexploitation and natural recharge.Pre-diction analysis was duly conducted based on the simulated evolution trends.The results suggest that the total area of wetlands showed a decreasing trend from 2000 to 2010,indicating a severe wetland degrada-tion in the study area.Then,it began to increase from 2010 to 2020,suggesting a mitigation of wetland degradation.By 2025,the wetland area in the study area is projected to increase by 16.23 km2 under the scenario of natural evolution;however,the degradation remains severe in Anxin County,Fuping County,Quyang County,and Tang County.Under the scenario of intensified groundwater overexploitation,the wetland area is expected to decrease by 13.94 km2,with significant wetland degradation distributing in the periphery of extraction sites.Conversely,under the scenario of natural recharge,the wetland area will in-crease by 21.68,27.32,and 32.82 km2,corresponding to the rising levels of precipitation,which will in turn lead to a continuous improvement in the degradation.The research results can provide a technical support for wetland protection,as well as the management and control of groundwater overexploitation.关键词
湿地退化/地下水超采/马尔科夫模型/预测分析/数值模拟Key words
wetland degradation/groundwater exploitation/Markov model/prediction analysis/numeri-cal simulation分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
鲁春辉,荣树杰,杨杰,谢一凡,叶逾,沈城吉,徐腾,南统超..保定市湿地退化空间分布特征及预测分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2025,36(2):9-18,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200500) （2021YFC3200500）
国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U2340212) （U2340212）
