水资源与水工程学报2025，Vol.36Issue(2)：134-143,10.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.02.16
地震作用下土石坝单元失效概率研究
Unit failure probability of earth-rock dam under earthquake
摘要
Abstract
The instability of earth-rock dams is related to numerous stochastic parameters;however,conventional stability analysis often overlook the impacts of multiple parameters on earth-rock dams,such as reservoir water level,soil shear strength,and earthquakes.To comprehensively analyze the fail-ure probability and damage modes of earth-rock dams,a case study of the dam in a pumped storage hy-dropower station was conducted.Based on pseudo-static method,plastic limit analysis,finite element discretization concepts,stochastic programming theory,and Monte Carlo simulation,we proposed a novel algorithm for the reliability analysis of earth-rock dams,considering the variability of soil shear strength parameters.Then,the failure probabilities of different sections of the dam were calculated based on the unit failure probability theory to assess the reliability of the whole dam.The results show that after sup-porting the downstream slope of the dam,the failure probability under normal water level and seismic condition were reduced by 1.90%and 17.56%,respectively,indicating that the supporting piles sus-tained the reinforcement effect under seismic conditions.Compared with the conventional methods(finite element method and Bishop's method),the calculation efficiency of the proposed algorithm was in-creased by 98.31%,with a mere average relative error of 3.32%for the safety factor.This suggests that the algorithm can accurately and efficiently predict the failure probability and failure zones of earth-rock dams,providing a reliable tool for the engineering design and safety assessment.关键词
土石坝/稳定性分析/单元失效概率/地震作用/拟静力法/蒙特卡洛模拟法Key words
earth-rock dam/stability analysis/unit failure probability/earthquake action/pseudo-static method/Monte Carlo simulation分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李泽,陆志明,张小艳,彭普,郭兴..地震作用下土石坝单元失效概率研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2025,36(2):134-143,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(12262016、12162018、12462037) （12262016、12162018、12462037）
