现代医药卫生2025，Vol.41Issue(4)：896-899,903,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-5519.2025.04.017
腹型过敏性紫癜患儿发生胃肠道出血的影响因素及logistic预测模型构建
The influencing factors on the occurrence of gastrointestinal bleeding in children with abdominal allergic purpura and the construction of logistic prediction model
李春玲 1刘永立 1曹丽 1季米 1陈曦1
作者信息
- 1. 永城市中心医院中西医结合二病区,河南 永城 476600
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the factors influencing the occurrence of gastrointestinal bleeding in children with abdominal purpura(HSP)and to construct a logistic prediction model.Methods A total of 118 children with abdominal HSP admitted to the hospital from September 2021 to September 2023 were selected and divided into 52 cases in the combined group and 66 cases in the non-combined group according to whether they had gastrointestinal bleeding or not,and the clinical data of the two groups of children were collected,and the laboratory indexes of the two groups of children were compared,and the influencing factors of the gastro-intestinal bleeding occurring in children with abdominal HSP were analyzed by multiple logistic regression.Results The difference between the children in the combined group and the non-combined group were statis-tically significant in terms of the rash distribution and the percentage of children who vomited(P＜0.05).The levels of WBC,PLT,CRP,NEU and NLR in the combined group were significantly higher than those in the non-combined group,and the differences were statistically significant(P＜0.05).Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that rash distribution,vomiting,NLR and CRP levels were independent risk factors for the occurrence of gastrointestinal bleeding in children with abdominal HSP(P＜0.05).A risk prediction model was obtained,Logit(P)=3.152×X1+2.158×X2+2.785 ×X6+2.855 ×X7,and the Hosmer-Lemeshoe test showed a good fit of the diagnostic model(x2=6.528,P=0.574).The receiver operator characteristic(ROC)curve showed that the area under the curve(AUC)of the risk prediction model for gastrointestinal bleeding in children with abdominal HSP for predicting was 0.899(95％CI 0.848-0.951),with a sensitivity of 81.11％and a specificity of 85.00％,suggesting that the model had a good predictive efficacy(P＜0.05).Conclusion Risk factors for gastrointestinal bleeding in abdominal HSP include rash distribution,vomiting,NLR and CRP levels,and a Nomogram predictive model with high predictive accuracy is constructed.关键词
腹型过敏性紫癜/胃肠道出血/影响因素/Nomogram预测模型Key words
Abdominal allergic purpura/Gastrointestinal bleeding/Influencing factors/Nomo-gram prediction model分类
临床医学引用本文复制引用
李春玲,刘永立,曹丽,季米,陈曦..腹型过敏性紫癜患儿发生胃肠道出血的影响因素及logistic预测模型构建[J].现代医药卫生,2025,41(4):896-899,903,5.
