沙漠与绿洲气象2025，Vol.19Issue(2)：19-27,9.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2401.05001
沙尘天气对太行山东麓地面太阳辐射影响及预报订正研究
Impact of Sand-dust Weather on Surface Solar Radiation at the Eastern Foothill of Taihang Mountains and Forecast Revision
摘要
Abstract
Utilizing solar irradiation and irradiance,total cloud forecast data,hourly total cloud comprehensive data,and environmental monitoring station PM10 hourly average concentration measured data from four photovoltaic power stations in Laiyuan,Quyang,Pingshan and Shexian at the eastern foothill of Taihang Mountains from January 2021 to December 2023,this paper analyzed the time and frequency characteristics of solar radiation intensity,studied the clear sky correction model based on radiation ratio and hourly average concentration of PM10,and tested its correction effect.The results indicate that:(1)There were numerous sand-dust weather processes from 2021 to 2022 with a maximum impact time exceeding 63 hours.When PM10 hour concentrations exceeded 1 588 μg/m3,solar irradiance decreased to 26.3%of sunny days.(2)Daily and monthly variations of total solar radiation were evident with a normal distribution centered around 12-13 o'clock BT and a single peak distribution centered around June.In March,July,and November,the solar radiation intensity was lower than the overall trends due to sand-dust,precipitation,and heavy fog.(3)The sand-dust weather irradiance model positively impacted the overall revision of solar irradiance forecast with MAE decreasing by 34.3 W/m2 and RMSE decreasing by 31.0 W/m2.The correction effect is closely related to the forecast quality of PM10 hour average concentration.When the PM10 forecast effect is good,the correction effect is obvious;otherwise it is poor.关键词
沙尘天气/太阳辐射/光伏电站/辐射比/预报订正Key words
sand-dust weather/solar radiation/photovoltaic power station/radiation ratio/forecast revision分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张金满,申彦波,赵增保,莫景越,王雪琪..沙尘天气对太行山东麓地面太阳辐射影响及预报订正研究[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2025,19(2):19-27,9.基金项目
中国气象局揭榜挂帅项目(CMAJBGS202209a) （CMAJBGS202209a）
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J038) （CXFZ2024J038）
新疆"天池英才"引进计划(2024) （2024）
中国气象局公共气象服务中心创新基金项目(M2023013) （M2023013）
河北省重点研发计划(22375405D) （22375405D）
