转化医学杂志2025，Vol.14Issue(1)：36-41,6.DOI:10.3639/i.issn.2095-3097.2025.01.008
冠心病患者PCI术后近期预后的危险因素分析及预测模型构建
Analysis of Risk Factors and Construction of Prediction Model for Short-Term Prognosis of Patients with Coronary Heart Disease After PCI
摘要
Abstract
Objective To investigate the risk factors and construct a prediction model for short-term prognosis in patients with CHD after PCI.Methods A total of 237 CHD patients undergoing PCI at Luzhou People's Hospital from June 2021 to June 2023 were selected.All clinically relevant data were collected,and patients were followed up for 6 months until December 31,2023.Adverse cardiovascular events were recorded,and prognosis was evaluated.Univariate analysis was performed on patients with different prognoses,and significant indicators were included in the multivariate Logistic regression equation to analyze risk factors and construct a predictive model.ROC curve analysis was used to evaluate the predictive value of the model for short-term prognosis.Results Among the 237 patients,52(21.94%)had poor prognosis,and 185(78.06%)had good prognosis.Patients were divided into a good prognosis group(n=185)and a poor prognosis group(n=52).The age,hs-CRP,and NT-proBNP levels in the poor prognosis group were higher compared with the good prognosis group.Additionally,the proportion of patients with hypertension as a basic disease,cardiac function grade Ⅲ-Ⅳ,and the number of stents being 1 was higher in the poor prognosis group compared with the good prognosis group.All differences were statistically significant(P<0.05 for all comparisons).Multivariate regression analysis showed that age≥65 years old(OR=2.494,95%CI:1.427-4.361),hypertension as a basic disease(OR=2.199,95%CI:1.193-4.053),cardiac function grade Ⅲ-Ⅳ(OR=2.790,95%CI:1.368-5.617),the number of stents being 1(OR=3.518,95%CI:1.939-6.384),hs-CRP≥4.8mg/L(OR=3.238,95%CI:1.813-5.784),and NT-proBNP≥417.09 pg/mL(OR=2.442,95%CI:1.523-3.917)were the risk factors for poor short-term prognosis in patients with coronary heart disease after PCI(P<0.05).The constructed model was Logit(P)=-10.740+age×0.914+hypertension×0.788+cardiac function grade×1.026+stent count×1.258+hs-CRP×1.175+NT-proBNP×0.893.The ROC curve of the Logit(P)model showed an AUC of 0.852(95%CI:0.807-0.892),with a sensitivity of 0.867 and a specificity of 0.685.Conclusion The short-term prognosis of CHD patients after PCI is influenced by age,hypertension,cardiac function grade,stent count,hs-CRP,and NT-proBNP.The constructed prediction model has high predictive value and can guide clinical strategies to improve prognosis.关键词
冠心病/近期预后/经皮冠状动脉介入术/预测模型Key words
Coronary heart disease/Short-term prognosis/Percutaneous coronary intervention/Prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
王玉兰,刘晓楚,贺文英,郭隆丽,兰敏,肖容..冠心病患者PCI术后近期预后的危险因素分析及预测模型构建[J].转化医学杂志,2025,14(1):36-41,6.基金项目
四川省科技创新苗子工程资助项目(2022099) （2022099）
