北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.61Issue(2)：228-237,10.DOI:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2024174
基于城市综合实力引力模型的珠三角城市群土地变化多情景模拟
Multi-scenario simulation of land change in the Pearl River Delta based on gravity model of urban comprehensive strength
摘要
Abstract
How to use land resources reasonably has become an essential issue in the sustainable development of cities.Land-change simulations can provide rational suggestions for the use of land resources,as land-change simulation can predict land-use changes under different future scenarios.Practical tools for land-change simulations are land-change models.Among the many land-change models,CLUMondo has become popular in recent years.CLUMondo model characterizes the relationship between land-types and land-system services more realistically by allowing one land-type to provide multiple land-system services.CLUMondo model is widely used in global or regional land-change simulations.To enable CLUMondo model more comprehensively capture intercity interactions within urban agglomeration,we proposed a simulation method based on a gravity model of urban comprehensive strength.Specifically,CLUMondo model was integrated with urban gravity model.The results of urban gravity model were used as driving factors in land-change simulation of CLUMondo model.The Pearl River Delta was selected as the study area to evaluate the accuracy of the integrated model.The urban gravity model was found to better describe interactions between cities.Higher accuracy was achieved in CLUMondo model integrated with urban gravity model compared with CLUMondo model alone.This work provides a solution for expansion simulation of urban agglomeration and offers suggestions for sustainable development of urban agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta.关键词
CLUMondo模型/城市扩张/引力模型/均衡化Key words
CLUMondo model/urban expansion/the gravity model/equalization分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
高怡凡,宋长青,叶思菁,张潇丹,高培超..基于城市综合实力引力模型的珠三角城市群土地变化多情景模拟[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,61(2):228-237,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42230106,42271418,42171088,42171250) （42230106,42271418,42171088,42171250）
