电测与仪表2025，Vol.62Issue(5)：98-105,8.DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2025.05.012
基于风速波动特性划分的短期风电功率预测
Short-term forecast of wind power based on the division of wind speed fluctuation characteristics
摘要
Abstract
In order to solve the problem that the wind power is difficult to predict accurately due to the drastic change of wind speed,a short-term wind power prediction method based on the division of wind speed fluctuation characteristics is proposed.By setting the wind speed fluctuation threshold,the large fluctuation sequence in the historical data set is divided into three stages,including rising wind,fluctuating wind and descending wind.The dynamic time warping algorithm is used to mine the fluctuating wind similar data in the historical data,and a train-ing sample data set is constructed combining with the corresponding historical wind power;a hunger game search algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters of the gated recurrent unit neural network,and a combined pre-diction model for three fluctuation stages is established.The wind power prediction values of different wind speed fluctuation processes are recombined in time series to obtain short-term wind power prediction results.The actual data of Xinjiang wind farm is used for simulation verification.The experimental results show that the proposed method can improve the prediction accuracy and generalization ability.关键词
风电功率预测/饥饿博弈搜索/门控循环单元/动态时间规整/风速波动特性Key words
wind power prediction/hunger games search/gated recurrent unit/dynamic time warping/wind speed fluctuation characteristic分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
乔倜傥,谢丽蓉,叶家豪,高阳,代兵..基于风速波动特性划分的短期风电功率预测[J].电测与仪表,2025,62(5):98-105,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(62163034) （62163034）
新疆天山创新团队项目(2021D14012) （2021D14012）
