电气传动2025，Vol.55Issue(5)：79-88,10.DOI:10.19457/j.1001-2095.dqcd25484
基于博弈论和改进D-S证据理论的变压器状态模糊综合评判方法
A Fuzzy Comprehensive Judgment Method for Transformer State Based on Game Theory and Improved D-S Evidence Theory
摘要
Abstract
To address the complexities of transformer condition assessment indicators and the overreliance on expert judgment in the evaluation process,a novel method for fuzzy comprehensive assessment of transformer condition was introduced,which is based on gaming theory and an improved version of the D-S evidence theory.First,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the Critic method was adopted to determine both the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation indicators.These weights are then combined using game theory,reducing the dependence on expert opinions in traditional weight determination methods.Second,instead of traditional membership functions,cloud models was employed to preserve the inherent uncertainty in fuzzy assessments.Finally,membership information at the project level was fused by using improved D-S evidence,eliminating paradoxical results that can occur when combining high-conflict evidence.Through the results of case studies,the method effectively assesses the transition probabilities of various transformer states.关键词
电力变压器/多级模糊综合评判/Critic方法/博弈论/改进D-S证据理论Key words
power transformer/multilevel fuzzy comprehensive judgment/Critic method/game theory/improved D-S evidence theory分类
动力与电气工程引用本文复制引用
熊伟,陈龙,吕顺利,郭振宇,路鑫..基于博弈论和改进D-S证据理论的变压器状态模糊综合评判方法[J].电气传动,2025,55(5):79-88,10.基金项目
国家电网有限公司总部管理科技项目(基于电网资源业务中台多模态数据的变压器状态感知与预测性运维技术研究与应用)(5700-202340289A-1-1-ZN) （基于电网资源业务中台多模态数据的变压器状态感知与预测性运维技术研究与应用）
